Michigan State has climbed back to second in the national rankings with an eight-game winning streak that started immediately after an 82-81 overtime loss at Purdue on Feb. 9. It reached its current level with Saturday’s semifinal win over Maryland. Purdue has five straight wins and has looked more impressive during its Big Ten tournament run.
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HOW THE PURDUE BOILERMAKERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It’s been a while since Purdue was last in the Big Ten tournament championship, but the Boilermakers have played like the best team in the conference.
The 13th-ranked Boilermakers have been impressive beating Michigan 76-59 on Saturday for a fifth straight win. And their two tournament victories have come by an average of 24 points while shooting 55.7 percent and 43.6 from long range. Their opponents are at 38.5 and 23.3.
Purdue had been keeping its turnovers at a manageable level before giving away nine possessions in Saturday’s second half. That helped fuel Michigan’s comeback. The Boilermakers were lucky to beat Michigan State once while turning it over 16 times. They need to be better Sunday.
Taking advantage of superior post play from A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas is leading the Boilermakers into the title matchup. Hammons had 27 points and 11 rebounds, and the senior center has averaged 16.8 points and 69.4 percent shooting in his last six games. It’s a mismatch that will be exploited.
HOW THE MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Michigan State is back in the title game for a third straight year after winning in 2014 and losing to Wisconsin last season. The win that put them there was the Spartans’ eighth straight and 12th in the last 13 games.
The Spartans are led by Big Ten Player of the Year Denzel Valentine, who came up just short for the second straight day of becoming the first player in tourney history with a triple-double. He hasn’t shot particularly well in two tournament games, hitting 37.0 percent, but he’s averaged 18.5 points, nine assists and eight rebounds.
What’s most impressive is how the Spartans have put themselves in the title game. One day after Maryland scored a tournament record 97 points, MSU held the Terps 15.1 below their season average. They’ve limited Ohio State and Maryland to 57.5 points on 38 percent shooting, including 27.3 from three-point range.
While the Spartans, with their efficient offense can score, slowing down Purdue’s frontcourt is critical. MSU is at a disadvantage size-wise down low and the three-point shot will be the equalizer.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Both teams are dominant in their own way and we will see contrasting styles on Sunday. The Spartans are deadly from three-point range, the most prolific from beyond the arc in all the land. Their offensive efficiency is startling and they advanced even with Valentine not playing his best. Purdue used its dominant post play to manhandle Michigan and should go back to Hammons and Haas again, as the Spartans don’t match up. The difference will be on the defensive end. As good as Michigan State is at scoring the basketball, the Spartans are also tough to shoot against. MSU will pack the middle and force Purdue to beat them on the perimeter and few teams have done that this NCAAB season. But Hammons and Purdue are hot and with a few perimeter shots sprinkled in from Raphael Davis, P.J. Thompson and Dakota Mathias, the Boilermakers will do just enough to hold off Valentine and the Spartans.
Purdue 78, Michigan State 77
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