We have a couple of Rams colliding to go head-to-head in the Atlantic-10 Conference finals as the Rhode Island Rams look to secure their first NCAA Tournament bid this century with a win—and the accompanying auto bid—over the VCU Rams. In all likelihood both are going to the Big Dance regardless of the outcome, but the only Rams that truly find themselves on the bubble at this point are the ones from Rhode Island. Will that give them that little added bit of motivation to top VCU?
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The odds opened with these two teams even, but the betting line has since bumped slightly in Rhode Island’s advantage as savy bettors are banking on that little extra motivation for the Rams as they look to take fate into their own hands rather than seeing if they’ve padded their resume enough to get the at-large bid.
Of course, motivation isn’t everything. Rhode Island does also provide the better defensive team of late and have been a bit more impressive throughout this tournament. They’ve also managed to string together seven straight wins including an 84-60 beating of Davidson in the semifinals. Over their last six games, the Rams have covered the spread all but once.
As for the other Rams, VCU wins have come in a narrower margin. While the team did cover the 6.5-point spread against Richmond, the game was closer than the 87-77 final would suggest. After all, it did go into overtime. VCU was pushed to the limit by the Spiders and only managed to get control of the game with the extra minutes.
Key Stat
In the near-loss against Richmond, the Spiders negated VCU’s shooting advantage from the floor and superior rebounding with an onslaught of three-pointers.
Richmond was killing the Rams on the parameter and VCU seeming had no answers to stop them. That proved to be a considerable weakness for the Rams, but Rhode Island doesn’t have the three as a significant weapon in their arsenal.
In fact, those other Rams are shooting 33.7-percent from beyond the arc this year to rank No. 243 in college basketball.
For those looking to play the total, defense should be the name of the game. VCU and Rhode Island are two of the better ranked teams in defensive efficiency at .921 and .933 respectively.
Last Meeting
VCU and Rhode Island have only met once so far this season with that meeting coming less than a month ago up at the Thomas M. Ryan Center.
Thanks in part to the familiar court, Rhode Island toppled VCU in that game, capturing a 10-point win, 69-59, to easily cover the 3.5-point spread. Sunday’s championship game will be on a neutral court, but it appears that Rhode Island will enter that one as the favorites as well.
Back to these team’s meeting in February, neither team shot well, at least from the floor, but the real difference came from beyond the arc and from the free throw line. VCU was just 1-for-15 from three-point land while Rhode Island sank four shots, largely due to Jared Terrell going 3-for-6 from deep. He ended up leading both teams in scoring with 20-points and added 10 rebounds. Hassan Martin also recorded a double-double from Rhode Island, scoring 17-points and nabbing 18 rebounds, 12 of them on defense.
It’s not surprising that the difference came on the deep shot. That’s what nearly sunk this team against Richmond, too.
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VCU has the better resume, but that may not be on their side here in Sunday’s action as that gives Rhode Island the better motivation.
That could certainly play a factor, but it can be overestimated, too. Still, count on Rhode Island to get the win here. Sure, this is the No. 4 seed against the No. 2 seed, but we’ve already seen Rhode Island top VCU. The Rhode Island version of the Rams have also been the better team here in the A-10 tournament.
While Virginia Commonwealth does have experience thanks to a veteran group of seniors, it’s Rhode Island playing the better basketball at the moment and that’s typically the key to pinpointing who will win in any single game showdown in sports.
College Basketball Odds: Rhode Island 77, VCU 73
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