If not for undefeated and No. 1 ranked Gonzaga, the Saint Mary’s Gaels would have a much better looking record. It’s still a beautiful sight at 23-3, but two of those defeats came at the hands of the Zags in games the Gaels had no answer for. And Saturday’s matchup with the BYU Cougars is huge in terms of the NCAA Tournament hopes for Saint Mary’s, who got the snub from the committee last year. Getting one last big win in regular season play could seal the deal for the Gaels this year.
This war on the floor will go down Saturday, February 18, 2017, at 10 p.m. ET at the Marriott Center. The game will be televised live on ESPN2. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball Saturday schedule.
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The WCC is such a top-heavy conference that the schedule could actually hurt more than help Saint Mary’s. Gonzaga counters league play with one of the most difficult non-conference slates in the country. The Gaels haven’t done that and it cost them last season. Their non-conference schedule was more challenging this season and a loss to UT-Arlington doesn’t look so bad now. But for Saint Mary’s to put pressure on the committee, another win over the No.3 team in the WCC would help.
BYU can reach the 20-win plateau with a victory on Saturday and more importantly it could help their chances of creeping into the tournament conversation. The Cougs aren’t out of the discussion with a regular season ender at No.1 Gonzaga. But this hasn’t been a particularly good year for BYU basketball. Sure the Cougars have 19 wins and will get to 20 before the year’s done. But that’s expected of this program. What’s not expected are losses to teams like San Diego, Pepperdine and Santa Clara, where the Cougs were big favorites.
Key Stat
The Gaels like to play defense and they’re pretty good at it. Saint Mary’s is ranked second nationally in scoring defense, surrendering an average of just 56.3 points per game, and they improved on that mark Thursday night by limiting LMU to 48 points. It was the eighth time this season the Gaels held an opponent to 50 or fewer points in a game.
And what makes them so good is their patience. Saint Mary’s is the best at slowing the tempo of a game and frustrating opponents into turnovers and missed shots. The Gaels have the fewest possessions per 40 minutes, according to kenpom.com, yet their offensive efficiency of 119.0 ranks 13th. The Gaels score an average of 71.8 points per game and their differential of 15.5 is among the best in college basketball.
Player to Watch
There are plenty of quality post players in the WCC and BYU’s Eric Mika might be the best of them all. Mika leads the conference in rebounding with 9.5 per game and blocked shots, and is the second leading scorer at 20.2 per outing. He’s a typical low-post player who plays with his back to the basket and opens the floor for the perimeter shooters. He helps the offense produce over 81 points per game.
Mika scored 28 points on 12 of 17 shooting in the first meeting with Saint Mary’s, but he went the final 11 and a half minutes without a point and the Cougars fell 81-68 in Moraga. Mika was neutralized by Jock Landale in that contest and the Gaels’ supporting cast was better, which allowed for the victory. Mika must dominate the paint and get to the free throw line in order for the Cougars to pull out a victory on Saturday night.
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BYU is always tough to beat at the Marriott Center and Saint Mary’s will have its hands full. But this is a game the Gaels need to improve their tournament chances and it’s one they won’t let slip away. SMC’s pace works well on the road, frustrating opponents and taking the crowd out of the game. The Gaels will need to be on top of their game in order to do that on Saturday.
Saint Mary’s is solid all the way around with a group of starters that have played together and a bench that knows its role. The team doesn’t hurt itself and is one of the most unselfish groups in the country. This is a legitimate NCAA Tournament team and the goal is to leave no doubt with the committee. That snub last season as a 27-win team has served as motivation and the Gaels will cement their status with a key road win.
College Basketball Odds: Saint Mary’s 74, BYU 66
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