The College Hoops Tip-Off Marathon has become a staple of the early part of college basketball season. Hoops junkies get their fill of the sport for a full 24 hours as everything else takes a back seat to the college game. The midnight game will be one of the better games on the slate when the San Diego State Aztecs take on the Gonzaga Bulldogs. These two teams are consistently among the best mid-majors in the country and considered favorites to win their conferences again this year.
At 12 a.m. ET, tune into ESPN2 for live television coverage of this NCAA basketball game on Tuesday, November 15, 2016, at the McCarthey Athletic Center in Spokane, Washington.
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San Diego State was solid last year, posting a 28-10 record en route to an NIT Semifinal appearance. The Aztecs were also one of the best road teams in the country ATS wise last season, with a 7-2-2 mark away from beautiful San Diego.
Gonzaga made the Sweet Sixteen as well last season on the back of a 28-8 SU record. The Bulldogs had some hiccups early on last year as the team came together, but came together when it mattered with a 5-1 ATS record in their six postseason games.
Player to Watch
The Aztecs aren’t a team that is going to score a lot of points on you and that makes Trey Kell all the more important as San Diego State’s top returning scorer. Kell led the team with 12.6 points per game last season and although he isn’t a very efficient shooter, he is the one most likely to have the ball in his hands with the shot clock winding down. He only hit 40.5 percent of his field goals last season, but there weren’t many better options than him.
Where Kell really excelled though was at shooting the three. Kell averaged almost two three-pointers a game last season and hit 38.4 percent of his attempts, tops on the team. He was a threat any time he got the rock outside the arc and opposing teams that left him open paid the price.
There is a pretty large weakness in Kell’s game though. For a guard, he is extremely turnover prone and has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. He notched 1.8 turnovers compared to 1.4 assists per game last season and that won’t cut it.
Matchup to Watch
What makes San Diego State so difficult to beat is how well they are at shutting down opposing scorers. The Aztecs were third in the nation in points allowed per game last season at 60.6 PPG allowed and routinely held teams in the 50s.
However, points stats can be slightly misleading. These stats take out the pace of the game and will skew a little bit if you have fast paced teams on your schedule. Instead, field goal defense is a much better stat and San Diego State is even more impressive there. The Aztecs were far and away the best team in the league in terms of this metric, with opposing teams hitting just 37.3 percent of their field goals. For comparison, Michigan State was the second-best team in the country and allowed opponents to make 38.2 percent of their attempts, almost a point higher.
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Gonzaga lost what were by far its two best players to the NBA in Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis and will be in the process of finding new talent to step up. Mark Few is one of the top coaches in the country and will get it sorted out, but it may take some time. The Bulldogs lofty ranking in the AP poll is more indicative of what people expect this team to become eventually and not what they are right now. For that reason, take San Diego State and the points and expect a close one.
College Basketball Odds: Gonzaga 71, San Diego State 69
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