The Texas A&M Aggies might've won the regular season SEC title in part by virtue of their win over the Kentucky Wildcats in College Station. However, the Aggies are entering the SEC Championship Game as the bona fide underdog in what will feel like a road game in Nashville.
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SCHEDULING
The good news for Texas A&M is that it hasn't worked all that hard in the SEC Tournament, and it played the earlier of the two games yesterday. The Aggies had a waltz into the final when they blew out LSU in the semis on Saturday, while Kentucky had to battle much harder than a 93-80 victory would suggest against Georgia.
Kentucky though, hasn't had to play against a team which has played the same number of games it has in the SEC Tournament yet. In both cases against Alabama and Georgia, the Wildcats were able to run away and hide in the late going to put games away. Texas A&M shouldn't show any ill-effects of its two games with the SEC title on the line.
KEY MATCHUP
Texas A&M has done a fantastic job in this tournament and all season long against opposing bigs. Ben Simmons only had 10 points and 12 rebounds for LSU, while John Egbunu only had 11 points and six rebounds after dominating at the end of the season.
Live bettors should always be concerned with the Kentucky bigs. The Wildcats are, of course, only going to score as much as Tyler Ulis, Jamal Murray and Isaiah Briscoe pour into the bucket.
The Wildcats didn't quite get as much out of Alex Poythress against Georgia as they would've liked, but no matter whether it's Poythress, Derek Willis, Marcus Lee or Skal Labissiere, someone has to step up to the plate and put together a good game offensively to open up things for the guards.
You'll notice that the production for Ulis, Murray and Briscoe has gone down of late, but Kentucky's wins have been more and more emphatic. They're all shooting the ball better from the field and are able to play better defensively in big spots because of the fact that they have to exert less energy on the offensive end of the floor, and that's how the Wildcats cover in live betting.
Against A&M though, the bigs were nowhere to be found. Granted, Poythress didn't play in that game due to injury, but Lee, Willis and Labissiere combined for just 14 points. That didn't cut it in College Station, and it won't cut it for live bettors in the SEC Championship Game either.
KEY STATS & TRENDS
Both of these teams are scorching right now for bettors. The Aggies have won eight straight games and have gone 7-1 ATS in that span, including covering both games here in Nashville. Kentucky has now won and covered its last four, winning those four games by an average of 16.3 points per game.
Live bettors should note the fact that the Kentucky offense has scored at least 85 points in each of these last four games. The Aggies have only allowed a total of 104 points in two games played in the SEC Tournament.
Kentucky was favored by two in College Station, but it was never actually in front of the spread in the game. The largest lead for either team was six points, and the Wildcats never led by more than two.
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