The Connecticut Huskies will need to pick themselves off the mat quickly after blowing a 10 point halftime lead at Houston with the AAC leading SMU Mustangs paying Hartford a visit for the team’s final meeting of the regular season. The league leaders haven’t dropped a game since the middle of January, so the Huskies will need to bring their “A” game to the gym if they’re to keep their home win streak intact.
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The Ponies have been Schwarzenegger-like in their destruction of the American Athletic Conference this season. Save for a slip up at Cincinnati, SMU has been untouchable and it doesn’t look like their done just yet. They’ll have had a full week to prepare for their final true road game of the season, and will be looking to build their win streak to 11. In the process, they’ll also be looking to take one step closer towards locking up that auto bid to The Dance.
Wednesday’s 75-70 defeat to the Cougars was a tough one to swallow. They held a double-digit lead at the break in holding a potent Houston side to just 29 points. The wheels fell off in the second stanza however in giving up 46 to fall by five. They did however cover the 8 point spread to secure their fourth pointspread cover in the last five tries. They return home where they check in 8-4 straight up but a poor 3-6 against the spread.
Key Stat
16 – UConn is an above average team in terms of holding onto the basketball. It averages just 12.5 turnovers per game ( No. 111 ) which drops down to 11.2 when in the comforts of their own gym. However, Kevin Ollie’s squad turned the rock over a sickening 16 times in their January 19 trip to Dallas where the Mustangs destroyed them 69-49 as 11 point favorites. The Huskies killed themselves early by turning the ball over which led to getting outscored 36-15 through the first 20 minutes of play. Another effort like that, and Connecticut will once again find itself behind the 8-ball quickly.
Player to Watch
Amida Brimah – The Mustangs sit only behind the UNC Tar Heels with the second best rebounding margin in the country. The starting five all averages at least 4.0 rebounds per game led by Ben Moore’s 8.4 per game average. Still, UConn was able to hang tough on the glass in the first meeting only losing the battle of the boards 37-33. That was with huge 7’ center Brimah riding the pine a majority of the game due to getting into early foul trouble for a change. His 6.0 rebound per game average will be essential for the Huskies to have any shot of evening the score.
Free College Basketball ATS Pick
For all intents and purposes, Connecticut is far outclassed by SMU in many areas. However, this is a team that’s been at its best when at home and it has a shot at picking up a couple huge wins with both the Mustangs and Cincinnati Bearcats paying them visits before the AAC tourney tips off. The Ponies have been nothing short of dominant no doubt, but they can be had if you take their inside game away. UConn has the beef down low to do just that in Brimah and Kentan Facey, but it needs to find a way to keep those two on the court long enough to make an impact. Should that happen, I give the home team a heck of a shot of covering this tilt if not winning it outright.
College Basketball Odds: SMU 64, Connecticut 62
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