If the Houston Cougars are going to sway the selection committee’s minds in thinking the AAC is worthy of having three teams get a bid to the Big Dance, it has to go out and beat the conference leading SMU Mustangs on their home floor Saturday night. That will likely be an extremely tough chore after the Mustangs came out hungover and almost fell at home to the Tulane Green Wave on Wednesday night.
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Whether it was the Mustangs taking their opponent way too lightly or them looking ahead to this matchup, SMU almost suffered one of the worst defeats in program history when it squeaked out an 80-75 win as 24 point favorites against the Green Wave. While it was impressive to see them put 53 points on the board in the second half, the team had to expend a ton of energy to get the job done. It will be interesting to see if there are some after effects with it looking to score its fourth straight win and third straight cover away from Dallas.
Since getting buried 85-64 as 9 point underdogs by these same Mustangs back on January 21, Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars have been playing some impressive ball. The streak started with a non-covering 65-51 win over Tulane, and was followed with four straight wins and covers against Temple, UCF, Tulane and Tulsa with the last two coming on the road. Houston returns home where it 10-3 straight up and 4-5 against the spread for the season. It failed to cover in its lone home dog role versus Cincinnati.
Key Stat
39.6% - This is the shooting percentage the Cougars have allowed each of their last five opponents to shoot. SMU would never be confused with an offensive juggernaut with it shooting just over 46 percent for the season, and when you take it out of Moody Coliseum, the percentage falls to 42.9 percent. Houston flat out stunk the joint out in the first go round allowing the Mustangs to knock down 56/6 percent of their overall shots and 13 of 27 from beyond the arc. Look for a more competitive effort in round two.
Matchup to Watch
As good as both of these defenses have been all season long, neither is anything to brag about when it comes to defending the 3 ball. SMU allows a 32.9 percent success rate ( No. 87 ), while Houston has conceded a 33.3 percent conversion rate ( No. 105 ). These teams combined for 27 made 3 points on 60 overall tries with Dameyean Dotson and Shake Milton doing most of the heavy lifting. Make it a point to see if any adjustments have been made to defend the arc better. If so, you’d be wise to live bet the side that does the better job.
Free College Basketball ATS Pick
SMU has been unbeatable when in the comforts of its own gym, but it’s been a different story on the true road where it’s been had three times through nine overall tries. It’s fallen at Cincinnati, Boise State and USC. Only the Bearcats rank out better than Houston of those three, and the Cougars would’ve likely beaten Cincy at home if it could’ve found a way to defend a 3-ball.
Over its five-game win streak, Houston has only allowed its opposition to convert at a 30.6 percent clip from downtown. If it can limit SMU around that mark or lower, it will have an excellent shot to win this game. This is the Cougars Super Bowl. If they don’t win this game, their only shot of getting an invite to the NCAA Tournament would be to win the AAC tournament. But if they do come out on top, it will force the selection committee to take notice. Look for Rob Gray Jr. and his mates to find a way to pull this one out.
College Basketball Odds: Houston 69, SMU 67
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