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This will be the last game of the season for the No. 24 SMU Mustangs after the overbearing NCAA levied a postseason suspension for academic malfeasance. Larry Brown and the Mustangs will look to make it count when they head on the road to take on the Cincinnati Bearcats, currently a No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament according to bracketologist Joe Lunardi.
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HOW THE SMU MUSTANGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
SMU looked like it may run the table after starting off perfect in non-conference play. However, the AAC schedule caught up to the Mustangs and left them with four losses. Still, SMU has been an extremely impressive squad and the Mustangs have won four straight coming into this one despite only having a seven man rotation.
Nic Moore is SMU's leading scorer on the season and averages 16.1 points a game, but wasn't the star of the show when the Mustangs took on UConn in their last appearance. Moore went just 4-of-13 from the floor and couldn't find his shooting touch.
With Moore having an off night, the Mustangs turned to Sterling Brown to lead the way and Brown didn't disappoint. Brown ended up hitting 9-of-11 shots from the floor en route to leading the Mustangs with 20 points on the night. With his performance the Mustangs were able to avenge an earlier loss to Connecticut.
HOW THE CINCINNATI BEARCATS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
A tough loss at Houston dashed any hopes Cincinnati had of a split AAC regular season title and now the Bearcats must win to solidify the No. 2 seed in the AAC tournament.
The Bearcats are a well-rounded team that doesn't rely heavily on any one player and instead receives similar support from everyone. Cincinnati has four players averaging between 10 and 12 points per game and only Troy Caupain plays more than 30 minutes a night. Caupain was the one Bearcat that had a good shooting game in Cincinnati's loss to Houston, hitting 8-of-17 field goals while the rest of the team went just 9-of-33 from the floor.
This game means so much to the Bearcats. Cincinnati is holding senior night for four starters and a win would shore up a spot in the NCAA Tournament. If the Bearcats lose this one and then crash out of the conference tournament, they are in major trouble of not making the field of 68.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
SMU has been mediocre for college basketball bettors this season, putting up a paltry 12-13 record against the number. However the Mustangs have been better as of late, covering three in a row, and are also better on the road with a 6-4 mark ATS.
The Bearcats have been even worse ATS this year and sit at 11-15 against the spread. Cincinnati has been better as of late at home at least, covering three of its last four home games. The over has been a solid bet in Cincinnati home games with a 7-4-1 ATS record on the year.
These two teams met earlier in the season and Cincinnati gave SMU all it could handle before the Mustangs came from behind to win by two and keep its then undefeated season intact. Ben Moore was the savior for SMU, hitting all five of his field goal attempts and recording five huge blocks to help keep the dream alive.
This time Cincy has everything in the world to play for while SMU is just playing for pride. Add to that the fact that this game is in Cincinnati and the AAC would like another tournament team, and there may be a few extra whistles to benefit the Bearcats.
Cincinnati 68, SMU 63
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