The SMU Mustangs are starting to look like they don't have a heck of a lot left to play for this year. Their season is just a handful of games away from being over with, and they've dropped three of their last six after starting the year at 18-0. Now, they've got a road test against a Connecticut Huskies team which badly needs a win like this one to help bolster their NCAA Tournament chances.
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HOW THE SMU MUSTANGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
SMU has more than proven to us that it can play with the big boys, and it did so once again on Saturday at home against Gonzaga. The Mustangs trailed early in the second half, but when they turned on the jets in the last 12 minutes of that game, they showed that they were definitively the better side.
Nic Moore is really the inspirational leader of this team at this point. The Illinois State transfer has put up 25 and 27 points in his last two games, and even though he's the smallest man on the floor at 5-foot-9, he can get to the hoop with a degree of explosiveness that few others have.
It's going to be tough scoring against a very good Connecticut defense, but the Mustangs are one of the five teams in the land shooting better than 50 percent from the field. If they can keep somewhere near that in this one, it'll be tough for the Huskies to hold them in the 60s or so, and getting to 70 seems to us like the magic number to cover this game.
HOW THE CONNECTICUT HUSKIES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
For our money, Connecticut has to get to the foul line a ton in this game. The Huskies have great free throw shooters all over the floor, as they rank No. 6 in the land in foul shooting percentage. That said, there are far too many games where they don't reach the stripe 20 times, and that's when they have troubles offensively. Generally speaking, a lack of free throws means a lack of aggressiveness and far too many jump shots are being taken.
Shonn Miller and Rodney Purvis can certainly step up and hit big shots without being all that close to the rim, but it's going to be a lot tougher to do so against a tall and lanky SMU defense which is incredibly underrated.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
UConn has been a much better team offensively at home than on the road in the AAC, and we think that's going to show once again in this one.
For as good as Moore is, and for as talented as these Mustangs really are, there are just too many moments in games when they fall short of their potential, especially of late. Losses against Tulsa and Houston were mind-boggling, and this just feels like another one of these games in which they come up short.
Let's not forget that this would be SMU's first win on the road against an NCAA Tournament team this year. Connecticut hasn't had a great schedule here at home, but it has proven that it can beat some of the big boys like Ohio State, Memphis and Georgetown. This will end up being just another feather in the cap of the Huskies as they rally towards March Madness.
Connecticut 69, SMU 63
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