The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks have been the most dominant team in the entire nation this year in relation to their conference. Not only are they only team in Division I to go through the entire regular season without a conference loss, but they've won their last eight games by 30.6 points per game.
No. 1 seeds have had a miserable time winning their conference tournaments this year though, and the Lumberjacks aren't out of the woods yet. The Southland Final will come down to their game against the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Lumberjacks, who provided them two great challenges this year in conference play.
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HOW THE STEPHEN F. AUSTIN LUMBERJACKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Lumberjacks just have to keep doing what they've done all season long. Thomas Walkup has been the best player in this conference all year. He's averaging 17.5 points, 6.9 boards and 4.6 assists per game this season, and he's doing so while playing less than 30 minutes per game.
Demetrious Floyd is coming off of a game against Houston Baptist in which he scored 30 points in just 21 minutes, and when he gets going from beyond the arc, this team is really tough to beat. He's already at 93 triples this year, six of which came against HBU on Friday night in the semifinals.
Defensively, the Jacks are letting teams shoot just 41.0 percent from the field this year. Anything better than about 43 percent against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi has shot 45 percent from the field this year against the Lumberjacks though, and that's going to be the target number for sure for the Islanders in this game to keep it close.
HOW THE TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI ISLANDERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
This time of year, part of what keeps games close, particularly in these small conferences is general belief. The Islanders aren't the better team on the court here, and if Stephen F. Austin is at its best, they're going to go home unhappy on Saturday night.
However, strange things happen in March, and we've seen it all throughout the country. The little guy stands in there for a few minutes. A few minutes becomes 10 minutes. Then it becomes a half. And then the crowd gets into the affair and pulls for the underdog. The big boys start to get a little tense and bothered, and all of a sudden, you've got an upset on your hands.
Surviving the inevitable run and making that run as short as possible is the key. On Friday, HBU hung in there for 10 minutes, as they were only down 20-18 with 9:21 left in the half. The Lumberjacks just started rolling at that point though, as they finished the half on a 34-14 run that the Huskies just couldn't stop.
The Islanders don't have a lot of great outside shooters, but Hameed Ali has been clutch of late. He hit the three-pointer with a hand in his face to beat Sam Houston State last night, and if he can hit some of those magical shots again in this one, this game could come down to the wire.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The easy thing to do is going to be to play Stephen F. Austin and lay the points in what will surely be the most lopsided spread on the card on Saturday. However, the Islanders aren't bad, and they stuck within a dozen against the Lumberjacks in both meetings this season.
We think physicality is going to be the key in this one. Rashawn Thomas and Bryce Douvier are imposing figures in the paint, and they have to set the tone early that they won't be bullied around in this one. If that turns out to be the case, this game could stay close the whole way.
It's worth remembering that Stephen F. Austin though, is a veteran side. Walkup has been here and done this for five years with a fantastic and dominant program, and he knows what it takes to get to the dance. He and his teammates will win this game and get the Southland's bid to the NCAA Tournament, but it won't come without a fight from a hungry Texas A&M-Corpus Christi team which has nothing to lose and everything to gain against the biggest boys on the block.
Stephen F. Austin 70, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 68
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