The Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers finished the regular season with the best record in the Northeast Conference and will get to host Tuesday’s final against the St. Francis Red Flash as a result. St. Francis is trying to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1991, while Mount St. Mary’s has made the tourney three times in its history. The winner here will likely receive a No. 16 seed, but just getting to the Big Dance is an accomplishment.
At 7 p.m. ET, tune into ESPN2 for live television coverage of this NCAA basketball game on Tuesday, March 7, 2017, at Knott Arena. We will have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball Tuesday schedule.
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St. Francis pulled off an incredible upset over Wagner in the conference semi-finals to reach this point. The Red Flash ended up hitting a game-winning three-pointer as the horn sounded to squeak past Wagner and into the finals, but how that shot was sunk is even more incredible. Keith Braxton ended up just heaving up an off-balanced prayer while trying to draw a bit of contact and rattled the shot home.
Mount St. Mary’s got a scare from Robert Morris in its semi-final match-up, but ended up pulling away at the end to get both the cover and the win. This Mountaineers team needed that after barely squeaking past Sacred Heart in the first round, a game where they failed to cover the spread.
Last Meeting
Mount St. Mary’s crushed St. Francis the last time these teams squared off. The Mountaineers went bonkers from behind the arc in the game, hitting 14 of 31 three-point attempts, in a 81-62 win on the road. Greg Alexander was a major factor in this, as the junior guard is primarily asked to shoot from distance, and responded well hitting 5 of his 9 threes. This season, 86 percent of his shots are three-pointers so St. Francis knows it needs to guard him on the wing.
The Mountaineers also got a great performance from Elijah Long, who led all players in scoring. Long played the full 40 minutes, and had an all-around fantastic showing. Long hit 10 of 14 field goals, buried 5 threes, grabbed 6 rebounds, and dished 8 assists. It was a virtuoso performance and highlighted his importance to the team. He is the motor for Mount St. Mary’s.
Key Stat
For St. Francis to win this game, the Red Flash need to be able to connect from distance. St. Francis is 31st in the nation in three-point shooting percentage this season, knocking down 39 percent of its attempts. The team only hung around against Wagner because of its three-point shooting, sinking 55 percent of their shots from range. That made up for a massive shot disparity as Wagner ended up attempting 17 more shots in the game.
When it comes to defending the three, Mount St. Mary’s is a middle of the pack team. The Mountaineers are allowing teams to hit 34.5 percent of their threes, but foiled the Red Flash somewhat last time.
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St. Francis must limit its turnovers if it is going to pull off the upset. The Red Flash turned the ball over an absurd 21 times the last time these two teams met and that led to the Mountaineers attempting 18 more shots in the game. St. Francis doesn’t rebound well either, so holding onto the rock is paramount.
The Red Flash are going to be the story thanks to the buzzer beater, but should pose no real threat to Mount St. Mary’s. The Mountaineers are a significantly better side and will prove it in a rout on Tuesday evening.
College Basketball Odds: Mount St. Mary’s 78, St. Francis 62
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