Cincinnati earned its sixth consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament on the back of another 20-win season. But the Bearcats were left to sweat out Selection Sunday after falling to UConn in the fourth overtime in the American Athletic Conference tournament quarterfinals.
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St. Joseph’s Hawks +2
Cincinnati Bearcats -2
Over/Under: 136
HOW THE ST. JOSEPH’S HAWKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Hawks needed a bit of help in the Atlantic 10 tournament to secure their bid, which they got by sweeping the field of George Washington, Dayton and VCU to win the conference championship and secure the automatic entry in the Big Dance.
St. Joseph’s will go as far as the frontcourt duo of Isaiah Miles and DeAndre Bembry takes them. Bembry, the A-10 Player of the Year, tallied 30 points to go along with five rebounds and four assists in the win over VCU.
Miles added 26 points and 12 rebounds against the Rams on his way to earning the A-10 tournament’s Most Outstanding Player. The two account for nearly half of the Hawks scoring and rebounds. Oddly, the duo is responsible for a good deal of three-pointers. And, as a team, the Hawks launch a bushel of them.
The Hawks take 22 threes per game, but make just 32.7 percent of them. If they continue to fire away from distance, it would behoove them to start making a higher percentage.
HOW THE CINCINNATI BEARCATS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Cincinnati is still frustrated over the ruling that allowed UConn to tie the game at the end of the third overtime. Coach Mick Cronin didn’t try to conceal his anger after the loss in the AAC tournament. After suffering five losses by two points, the Bearcats are determined to use the UConn game as motivation.
The Bearcats have held six of their last 10 opponents to 60 points or fewer and hopes to use their stifling defense to choke off St. Joe’s big guns Bembry and Miles. That should be a priority since those two account for 50 percent of the Hawks’ scoring.
Getting healthy is a key as well. Cronin is hoping that his players will be able to heal quickly. If the Bearcats are to make a deep run in the tournament, they’ll need all hands on deck. Farad Cobb, Gary Clark, Jacob Evans and Shaq Thomas are all nursing injuries.
Troy Caupain filled up the stat sheet against UConn, going off for 37 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and three steals, and he hasn’t been 100 percent. Octavius Ellis and Gary Clark are healthy and major contributors.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
It’s no coincidence that only three No. 9 seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 in the last 20 seasons; it’s hard to win back-to-back games against the No. 8 seed – likely a tossup – and the top seed in the region.
Cincinnati is a NCAAB team that can buck that trend because of its overall efficiency and matchups in the first two rounds. The Bearcats rank in the top 25 in net efficiency, and if not for five losses by two points and a crazy quadruple overtime loss to UConn in the AAC tourney, they could easily have received a higher seed. The game plan is simple: slow down the Hawks’ big men and make someone other than Miles or Bembry beat you. The Bearcats are good enough defensively to do that.
Cincinnati 74, St. Joseph’s 69
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