The Hawks already upset top seeded Dayton and will look to take out the No. 2 seed on Sunday to grab the A-10 conference crown. The Rams, however, have the edge in more than just seeding, having beaten St. Joseph’s in their last meeting.
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HOW THE ST. JOSEPH’S HAWKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Hawks aren’t the greatest shooting team, but they’ve managed to put up an average of 77.3 PPG. They’ve now scored at least 82 points in back-to-back games.
On Saturday, the Hawks’ offense went off on Dayton for the 82-79 victory. Isaiah Miles led the way for St. Joseph’s, shooting 7-for-15 for 26 points thanks in large part to a 9-of-10 mark from the free throw line.
Miles is an elite forward. He’s averaging 18.2 PPG and has scored at least 15 in seven straight games. The last time the Hawks faced VCU, Miles put up 31 points, shooting 11-for-14.
Outside of Miles, the rest of the team shot 18-for-49. DeAndre Bembry did score 17-points, but otherwise the team didn’t get nearly the production they needed to keep up with VCU in a shootout.
Of course, Miles and Bembry are back and provide a formidable tandem inside. On the perimeter, Aaron Brown is the team’s leading scorer with 10.2 PPG.
Don’t look for the Hawks’ defense to hand them the win, but offensively, we’ve seen St. Joseph’s playing at the top of its game this tournament. Having already topped the highest ranked team, it’s not inconceivable to see the Hawks come out victorious again on Sunday to punch their ticket to the dance.
HOW THE VCU RAMS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Hawks’ back-to-back wins in the tournament aside, St. Joseph’s came into the tourney having lost three of its last four games ATS.
The Rams, meanwhile, have gone 20-8 ATS this season. Over the team’s last nine games, they’re 7-2 both SU and ATS.
Statistically, VCU is scoring the same 77.3 PPG as the Hawks, but have the far better shooting percentage. Defense is where the difference widens as the Rams are allowing just 66.7 PPG. While the Hawks have advanced in this tournament by outscoring the opposition in a shootout, the Rams have scored 85 and 76 points respectively. On the defensive end, they’ve allowed just 124 combined points, including 54 to Davidson on Saturday.
In that showdown, we saw VCU handle the Wildcats with ease, capturing a 22-point victory to easily cover the 8–point spread. The easy win was far less stressful than the Hawks’ down to the wire win over Dayton. That could put VCU in a better position, based on rest and fatigue.
Speaking of Saturday’s win, the Rams shot 48.3 percent from the floor for the game, more than 10 percent better than Davidson. Korey Billbury led the team in scoring with 17-points. He is part of a stacked backcourt that also includes Melvin Johnson and JeQuan Lewis.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Hawks are scoring in bunches right now and you can look for that to continue, but the Rams’ have the same number of PPG and a superior shooting percentage. They also have the better defense.
Overall, the key difference could be fatigue. The Hawks had a rather emotional upset win that could be quite exhausting for a team that needs be ready to play again just after noon. VCU, meanwhile, cruised to its victory on Saturday.
Look for both NCAAB teams to push this game to the last minute, but count on VCU to come out victorious.
VCU 79, St. Joseph’s 77
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