Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s have owned the West Coast Conference for the past 15 years or so, and it’s only fitting that a late-season game will once again play a role in deciding the regular season champ. The Gaels handed Gonzaga its only conference loss with a three-point decision in Moraga last month.
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HOW THE ST. MARY’S GAELS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It’s fair to say that nobody outside of Moraga thought that a Saint Mary’s team that was replacing all five starters would be in the hunt for an NCAA tournament berth. But here they are, with just two weeks left in the regular season, square on the bubble.
The Gaels boast arguably the nation’s best offense, and they have for the entire season. Entering the weekend they lead the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio, field goal percentage and effective field goal percentage. The dual point guard attack led by Emmett Naar and Joe Rahon gives opposing defenses fits.
Saint Mary’s likes to slow the pace of games and frustrate opponents into making mistakes. That’s how the Gaels knocked off Gonzaga earlier this season. Only nine teams average possessions longer than the Gaels. Taking their time against the Bulldogs will also take the Kennel crowd out of the game.
A common gripe about Randy Bennett’s program is that it tends to play a rather weak schedule. That’s a fair complaint this year, and it’s the sole reason why the Gaels aren’t a lock for the NCAA tournament at this point. Another win over Gonzaga could do the trick.
HOW THE GONZAGA BULLDOGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Gonzaga was thought to be a top-10 squad entering the campaign and expectations were high for a Bulldogs squad boasting size, depth and experience. A funny thing happened along the way however.
All is certainly not lost for coach Mark Few and company. They’re still on track to claim their 16th regular season conference crown since 1999. And if they can take care of business at home against Saint Mary’s, they’ll head to the conference tournament as a favorite to make an 18th straight trip to the NCAA’s.
The pressure is on Few and his team. Fortunately, the Bulldogs are still the most complete team in the WCC. Duke transfer Kyle Wiltjer is the league’s best player, averaging 21.1 points per game. On top of that, the Bulldogs have a budding star in Domantas Sabonis, who is putting up 17.5 points and 11.7 rebounds per outing.
The loss of mammoth center Przemek Karnowski to a back injury has been a concern, but Sabonis and 7-foot-1 center Ryan Edwards have done a solid job plugging the middle. The Bulldogs need to be as patient as Saint Mary’s and their talent should breakthrough.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
With six losses, this hasn’t been a typical Gonzaga season. Sure, they played a rough non-conference schedule, but upsets and injuries along the way have turned the Bulldogs into a bubble team. It’s possible, depending on how things go around the country over the next few weeks, that the WCC could be a one-team league. That puts more emphasis on head-to-head games between the heavyweights and Gonzaga would sure like to avenge its only conference loss of the season. Saint Mary’s is a tough team to gauge. The Gaels did what they had to in a soft non-conference schedule, but got swept by a middle-of-the-road Pepperdine club. But they did beat Gonzaga earlier this NCAAB season and know they can run with the Bulldogs.
Gonzaga 74, Saint Mary’s 71
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