The conference tournament season is usually full of surprises, but there were none in either the quarterfinals or semifinals in the West Coast Conference. This brings us our third iteration of the St. Mary's Gaels taking on the Gonzaga Bulldogs. St. Mary's won both regular season matchups and in all likelihood has punched its ticket to the dance. Meanwhile, Gonzaga's status is up in the air and the Bulldogs would love to get a win to erase any doubt.
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HOW THE ST. MARY'S GAELS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Gaels have already proven they can beat the Zags and held the high flying Bulldogs to an average of 62.5 points in their two victories earlier this season. St. Mary's stingy defense shut down Gonzaga's leading scorer, Kyle Wiltjer, holding him to just 19 total points in both games and even Domantas Sabonis was stopped in the last meeting between these two teams.
Evan Fitzner was the Gaels' leading scorer in both games against the Bulldogs this season and has been extremely efficient from the floor. Fitzner combined to go 12-18 from the floor in both games against Gonzaga and hit four of seven three pointers. His performance against Gonzaga has been a nice surprise as he is averaging 9.1 points per game over 29 games this season.
Emmett Naar is St. Mary's leading scorer and acquitted himself very well against the Bulldogs by making 50 percent of his shots for 29 points in both games. Naar also leads the team in assists with 6.2 per game.
HOW THE GONZAGA BULLDOGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It's no surprise who Gonzaga will look to in its hope to finally beat St. Mary's and clinch a spot in the NCAA Tournament - Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis.
Sabonis registered yet another double-double against BYU in the semifinals, and went a perfect 6-6 from the floor in the process. Sabonis finished the night with 18 points and 14 rebounds, but had a very uncharacteristic seven turnovers. His range is a crucial part of Gonzaga's game plan to stretch St. Mary's defense, so he can't turn the ball over that many times if the Bulldogs are to win.
Wiltjer has been mercurial and an inconsistent shooter game of late. He was shut down by the Gaels, but took over the game against BYU and went 10-18 on field goals while also nailing five of seven three pointers. He needs to play more like he did last night for the Zags to finally topple St. Mary’s.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
St. Mary's has a 27-4 record this season and boasts an impressive 17-10 ATS record. In line with the Gaels' defensive prowess, the under has been a great bet in its games this season with it cashing at a 17-9-1 clip.
Mark Few and the Gonzaga Bulldogs have been mediocre ATS wise this year with a 14-15-1 record against the number. The Bulldogs are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS against the Gaels this season. The over has been the side that hits more often in Zags' neutral site games this season with four of the six combining to go over the total.
Gonzaga doesn't have much leeway with its tournament resume and if there was another mid-major with a similar resume they would probably have to win the tournament to make the dance. However, Few and the Bulldogs have built up enough credibility that they are squarely on the bubble before the WCC Finals.
It's hard to beat one team three times in one season, especially if that team has very similar talent. Look for the third time to be the charm for Gonzaga.
Gonzaga 69, St. Mary's 66
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BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The game between the St. Mary's Gaels and the Gonzaga Bulldogs is scheduled for Tuesday, March 8, 2016 at 9:00 p.m. ET at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.
