The Duke Blue Devils were coasting right along in ACC play this year before getting beaten at Clemson on Wednesday night. They're back at home over the weekend and on Monday, and that could play into their hands against the Syracuse Orange, who will also be playing on short rest.
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HOW THE SYRACUSE ORANGE CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Orange have played a number of incredibly close games to the point spread this year, but they've left a lot of points on the floor as well. They're a poor foul shooting team at just 67.9 percent, and you can bet that shooting in front of the Cameron Crazies will be incredibly difficult.
Jim Boeheim also has to find a way to get his team to close out a game. The Orange have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall, and those five failed covers came a total of just 17.5 points shy of being flipped the other way for bettors.
Part of the reason Syracuse beat up on Boston College on Wednesday night is because it wasn't too reliant on the three-point shot. Malachi Richardson and Michael Gbinjie tend to get a little three-happy, particularly in close games, but against the Eagles, the Orange took just 17 three-point attempts on 46 shots.
The ratio to watch is free throws versus three-point shots. If the Orange have more foul shots than three-point attempts, they're going to have a shot of covering this spread. Otherwise, they're in a lot of trouble.
HOW THE DUKE BLUE DEVILS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Blue Devils found the answer to replacing the rebounds and inside points vacated by the injured Amile Jefferson, but what they haven't figured out is how to replace the points, rebounds and minutes of his backup, Marshall Plumlee.
The Blue Devils only have seven men in their rotation, and the fact of the matter is that Chase Jeter is only being used to spell some guys and steal some minutes on the court.
That depth came back to really hurt at Clemson on Wednesday night, as the Blue Devils simply ran out of gas from the point they were up 51-47 with nine minutes to play. Keep in mind that this is the second game in three days for the Blue Devils as well, and they're going to be run up and down the floor by Notre Dame as well.
The good news is that Syracuse is just as thin and is playing on the same Saturday/Monday schedule.
Plumlee has to stay out of foul trouble, and he has to use his size and strength to wear down an undersized Syracuse team to cause its depth to look shoddier than Duke's.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
We think this game has all the makings of being sloppy defensively. Both teams are going to be weary from a long weekend, and that could result in a lot of mental breakdowns and easy buckets which both teams will be dying to find.
We just don't trust Syracuse on the road against a great team, though. The Orange have played against four tourney teams from the ACC thus far this year, and they're 0-4 SU and ATS in said games.
In the end, Duke will find the answers to the 2-3 zone and make enough plays on the opposite end of the court to look the part of the better of the two sides, and playing in front of the Cameron Crazies is only going to exacerbate the situation and turn a win into a cover for the Dookies as well.
Duke 88, Syracuse 77
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