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Two weeks before the NCAA Tournament began, Syracuse didn’t know if it would have a spot in the field. Now the Orange is one of eight teams remaining with a shot at the national title. Many still feel Syracuse doesn’t belong after losing four of its last five regular season games then falling to Pitt in the ACC tournament, but there they are.
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HOW THE SYRACUSE ORANGE CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It’s been a rocky season for Syracuse and one nobody expected would take them to the Elite Eight. The Orange made all the plays down the stretch in knocking off Gonzaga in the Sweet 16.
From Tyler Lydon’s game-saving block, to Michael Gbinije’s go-ahead jumper, to Trevor Cooney’s steals, the Orange did what it had to. Syracuse isn’t the best team remaining in the tournament, but the Orange played its best when it mattered most.
The vaunted match-up zone defense of Syracuse reduced Gonzaga to a two-man show on Thursday, effectively eliminating the backcourt play that allowed the Bulldogs to reach its place in the tournament. The Orange will have to be active against Virginia since points will likely be at a premium.
Tyler Roberson, an undersized post player, will have to duplicate his 12-rebound effort from Friday. The zone defense leaves plenty of seams down low and choking off second chance points is crucial against the Cavaliers.
HOW THE VIRGINIA CAVALIERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Under Tony Bennett, the Cavaliers have been knocking on the door of the Elite Eight. On Friday they pushed it in. Virginia advanced to its first regional final in 21 years with a win over Iowa State.
The Cavaliers have been known as a pretty good defensive team under Bennett, but overlooked is how efficient they are on offense. They adapted and ran with Iowa State on Friday, eventually running the Cyclones off the court.
And they have the firepower to bust a zone defense, which they are likely to see plenty of from Syracuse. Malcolm Brogdon and London Perrantes can knock down shots from the perimeter while Anthony Gill and Mike Toby work around the basket.
But the Cavs live off their defense. They did a nice job slowing down Iowa State’s attack on Friday and surrender just 59.8 points per game this season. UVA also has a win over Syracuse this season, posting a 73-65 win on Jan. 23.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Syracuse is playing with house money right now. Some questioned their inclusion when the brackets were announced, and rightfully so – they had a 72 RPI. The Orange have relished playing as the underdog, though, and have surprised everyone with their run to the Elite Eight. But Syracuse is stuck, facing a conundrum of epic proportions against the Cavaliers.
The Orange have a difficult time scoring the basketball and have relied on a frenetic defense to advance. They pressed Gonzaga and used turnovers to cap a comeback and set up the ACC showdown in the Elite Eight. But, therein lies the problem. Virginia is one of the best at breaking pressure and routinely scores easy buckets in transition. The Cavaliers have a tested, veteran group and appear to be playing with a purpose. And while Syracuse has a good defensive squad, the Cavaliers are better. UVA shuts down the Orange to set up another ACC showdown, this one in the Final Four.
Virginia 74, Syracuse 65
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