The Big 12 has 10 teams. Nine of them are in kenpom.com’s top 100. Seven are in the top 50 and three, including Kansas, are in the top five. So, unless you’re hosting TCU there are no gimmies in this conference.
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HOW THE TCU HORNED FROGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It’s not going to be easy. But there is hope for the Frogs. A win over Texas last Saturday provided a boost for TCU and coach Trent Johnson. But he left it at face value – one win three games into an 18-game Big 12 schedule. Still, the 58-57 victory rewarded the Horned Frogs with a split of a week at home after falling to West Virginia on Jan. 4. In each game TCU led at halftime and had the lead for 18 minutes.
The Frogs are a bit challenged offensively so reliance on their defense is critical, especially on the road in the Big 12. TCU improved to 6-0 when holding an opponent under 40 percent shooting by limiting the Longhorns to 37.1, including 3 of 21 from three-point range.
TCU was dealt a blow before the season even started when Kenrich Williams, their leading rebounder and third leading scorer in 2014-15, was lost for the year with a knee injury. Then, senior forward Chris Washburn was shelved early in the year with a broken finger.
The chances for a straight up win in Kansas are slim. TCU will have to shoot lights out and leading scorer Vladimir Brodziansky has to be better than he’s been all year. But it will take a team effort on both ends of the floor and some luck.
HOW THE KANSAS JAYHAWKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Kansas was hounded into an unheard of 22 turnovers by West Virginia’s press and that was a major reason for the loss. TCU will likely try to duplicate some of the successful schemes the Mountaineers ran at the Jayhawks, but the Frogs are more of a straight up man-to-man defensive team and don’t press too much. But reducing turnovers is a point of emphasis for KU.
When the basketball is in the trusted hands of Wayne Seldon Jr. and Frank Mason III, there usually isn’t a problem. By creating off the dribble and spreading the floor, the two either score it themselves or dish to leading scorer Perry Ellis. Rarely do they turn the ball over.
The No. 1 ranking the Jayhawks received just two weeks ago will be short-lived. They are likely to be replaced when the next poll is released, but the turnover at the top shows us just how volatile the world of college basketball is today. Unlike last season when Kentucky was No. 1 throughout the regular season, there are a number of teams, including a few from the Big 12 that could be considered for the top spot.
But like Kentucky last season, it really doesn’t matter who’s No. 1 until the first weekend in April. Coach Bill Self knows this all too well and isn’t overly concerned with where his team is ranked today. He just wants the Jayhawks to be No. 1 when the tournament is over.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
You hardly ever see the No. 1 team in the country not even leading its conference. That’s the plight of the Jayhawks right now after dropping a game to West Virginia on Tuesday, falling into a second place tie in the Big 12. The nation’s fourth-ranked scoring team struggled in its last two games, failing to reach 70 points in each outing while watching the average drop to 86.8 per game. Some home cooking and the Horned Frogs should remedy that. TCU played West Virginia tough in a loss and beat Texas last week, but those games were at home. It’s a different story when you hit the road in the Big 12, and TCU will once again find that out.
Kansas 87, TCU 68
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