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The TCU Horned Frogs were in a tough situation entering the Big 12 Tournament opener. They had lost seven straight games coming in and desperately wanted to end that slide. But after knocking off Oklahoma in the first round, the No. 1 team in the country awaits. TCU takes on the Kansas Jayhawks in the quarterfinal round, but will have the advantage of not facing the conference freshman of the year after KU suspended Josh Jackson for Thursday’s contest.
This war on the floor will go down Thursday, March 9, 2017, at 2:30 p.m. ET at the Sprint Center in Kansas City. The game will be televised live on ESPN2. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball Thursday schedule.
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With Jackson facing a one-game suspension the spread will be much closer than the last time these teams met. Just over two weeks ago, the Jayhawks hosted the Horned Frogs as a 12-point favorite and pulled away in the second half for an 87-68 cover win and the season sweep. Earlier in the year the Jayhawks defeated TCU 86-80, but failed to cover the 6.5-point line.
The Jayhawks won the conference regular season title ... again, and they were 4-1 ATS in their last five. A big change from what they did through most of the Big 12 season. KU opened league play going 3-10-1 ATS. TCU looked to be in a good spot for a NCAA bid just a month ago, but a paralyzing seven-game losing streak to close the regular season likely cost them a shot. There were two one-point losses in that run and four of the games were decided by five or fewer points. However, the Horned Frogs were just 1-6 ATS until upending Oklahoma in the first round.
Injury Report
The timing of Jackson’s suspension couldn’t have been better for the Jayhawks. They will be favored to advance even without the league’s top rookie, but it’s a loss that should never have happened. And it takes one of the most talented players in the Big 12 off the court. Jackson is a projected top draft pick and gives the Jayhawks some swagger. He averages 16.4 points and 7.2 rebounds per game.
Kansas has little depth in the front court and Jackson’s absence could prove troublesome. Lagerald Vick will likely start in place of Jackson and his numbers are significantly lower across the board. The Jayhawks will lean on Frank Mason and Devonte Graham a little more and will need Landen Lucas and Carlton Bragg Jr. to stay out of foul trouble. The game could be much closer with Jackson sitting on the bench.
Player to Watch
With Jackson out of the middle, the Horned Frogs will look to leading scorer Vladimir Brodziansky to have more of an impact. Brodziansky scored 20 points in the first round win over Oklahoma and was a force in the paint. Kansas will have the advantage in the backcourt with Big 12 Player of the Year Mason and Graham, so TCU needs its big man to own the middle to have any chance of pulling off an upset.
When the teams met for the first time in late December, Jackson played just 12 minutes before fouling out and was a non-factor. He scored only four points on 2 of 8 shooting. Brodziansky took advantage in that meeting by scoring 28 points making nine of his 19 shot attempts and 10 of 11 from the free throw line. The Horned Frogs covered the 6.5-point spread in that game with their 86-80 loss.
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You can’t take the Big 12’s top newcomer out of the lineup and not expect to be impacted in some way. The Jayhawks are the more talented team and will have the best player on the floor in Mason. We’ll see KU play a bit more guard-oriented game with Mason and Graham to try and offset the loss of Jackson. That gives TCU a chance to make up the difference inside.
Depth could be an issue for Kansas with Vick and Bragg eating up the minutes left by Jackson. Those two have been key reserves all season and the rotation is suddenly jumbled. TCU will have to play on consecutive nights and KU will attempt to take them out of it with their pressure defense. And when the Jayhawks do that, they’ll eventually pull away for a cover win.
College Basketball Odds: Kansas 75, TCU 64
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