With just a 1-3 SU and ATS record on the road in the SEC, there has to be some legitimate concern for the Tennessee Volunteers as they head away from Knoxville once again on Saturday to take on the TCU Horned Frogs in the SEC/Big XII Challenge.
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HOW THE TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It's tough to suggest that the Vols have to score in the 80s if they want to cover this game, but that's sure what their history states. Getting to 78 seems to be the key number. When Tennessee does that this year, it is 8-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS. When it doesn't, the team is 2-7 SU and 2-6 ATS.
The good news is that the band of scorers is all back together again after Robert Hubbs III missed some games in the middle of the non-conference slate. He and Kevin Punter are a true force together, as they average over 45 points per game combined.
Punter is going to be the best player on the court at any given time, and he can go off for 30+ in this one. He's a great shooter at 48.5 percent from the field and 39.6 percent from distance, and his 22.9 points per game makes him one of the top scorers in the entire nation.
HOW THE TCU HORNED FROGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Horned Frogs are only 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in conference play at home this year, but they've been pesky at times against some really good teams. Players routinely shuttle in and out of the lineup, and that makes it tough to find consistent scoring from anywhere. On Tuesday against Texas, no one in the game scored more than nine points for TCU, and the offense was stuck on 54 points in a bad loss in Austin.
The man we'd really like to see step up here is Chauncey Collins. He's only the third-leading scorer on the team at 10.5 points per game, but he's the deadliest three-point shooter the men from Fort Worth bring to the table. On a night where the Horned Frogs are going to need to score in the 70s in all likelihood to have any chance of covering the spread, Collins is the best threat for a 20+ point game, and we think he'll have to get there and stay on the court for the majority of the game.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
This isn't exactly the sexiest game of the SEC/Big XII Challenge, but we think it's a really good spot to pick on the lowly SEC. TCU probably shouldn't be considered the better of these two teams, especially since Rick Barnes was supposed to have a really talented side in his first year at Tennessee. However, we don't see it panning out at this point.
Going on the road in college basketball is hard no matter where you're going, but the task seems to be magnified when you're in an unfamiliar gym on a long road trip. If Tennessee's offense can't continue to pour pressure on the Horned Frogs, the hosts will do what they do best: Find a way to stick around in a game where it's probably outclassed.
If this one comes down to the wire, we trust Collins and TCU more than we do Punter and the rest of his supporting cast. This could be a tight one, and we want the hosts in that case.
TCU 70, Tennessee 68
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