A short journey for the Bulldogs, the Volunteers will take the long hike up to Seattle for the Washington Federal Battle against a ranked Gonzaga team. The Vols have struggled against better competition, particularly on the road and will try to overcome both issues, but Gonzaga doesn’t figure to make it easy.
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HOW THE TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Vols aren’t a ranked team like Gonzaga and they’re without their top scorer from a season ago in Josh Richardson. The team is also under a new head coach in Rick Barnes.
While it appears that was a lot of change for Tennessee, in actuality, this is a relatively established squad with the six highest scoring players after Richardson all returning. The team’s also added some nice talent including Admiral Schoefield, the small forward who’s seeing an increase in playing time lately.
Schoefield has scored at least a dozen points in two of his last three games and has worked his way into the starting five.
Overall, the team has four players averaging at least 10.7 PPG, headed by guard Kevin Punter with 23 PPG. Punter is the quickest and simplest answer to why this team can cover the spread against Gonzaga.
Of course, Punter is not the only strong player on this team. He’s surrounded by enough offensive talent to average 80.6 PPG. They’re also going against a team averaging five and a half points fewer PPG.
Straight up, the Vols have had issues on the road, but they’re 3-1 when not at home ATS and that’s definitely a check on their side for beating the spread on Saturday.
To help matters even more, the Bulldogs will be without center Przemek Karnowski whose back injury has kept him out all of December. Without him, Gonzaga is weaker down low, opening things up for the Vols.
HOW THE GONZAGA BULLDOGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Tennessee did win its last game, but prior to that had dropped three straight games and have yet to capture a win away from Knoxville.
The Volunteers will also have to play the ranked Bulldogs without their second best player in the backcourt, Robert Hubbs III. The third year guard showed major improvement this year, more than doubling his scoring average from last year over seven games. He’s recovering from knee surgery and won’t be available.
Even with Karnowski out, the Bulldogs have plenty of size in the front court over Tennessee in forwards Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis standing at least 6’10” each.
The duo also leads the team in scoring with 20.3 PPG and 15.4 PPG respectively. The duo should own the Volunteers down low who have a poor defense ranked No. 253 in the nation with 75.1 PPG allowed.
In addition, the Bulldogs rank No. 23 nationwide in rebounds with 43 per game. Given the boards and the shooting down low, the Bulldogs thrive in pushing the opponent to the outside and dominating the low post.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Tennessee cannot match the Bulldogs inside the paint as Wiltjer and Sabonis are too big and too good. To win, the Volunteers will have to try and beat Gonzaga on the outside, but that will likely force the Vols to take lower percentage shots.
Overall, the Gonzaga defense is too good. Look for the Bulldogs to beat the Vols on the boards and dominate inside, handing Gonzaga a nice double-digit victory over Tennessee.
Gonzaga 78, Tennessee 66
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