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No one would have believed that Shaka Smart’s Texas Longhorns would be this bad at the start of the year. Texas is on pace to have one of its worst seasons ever in basketball and the only question is how many games below .500 the Longhorns will end up. They have looked toothless all season long and still have three more games against Top 10 opponents left. The first of those will take place in Morgantown on Monday night when the West Virginia Mountaineers welcome them.
Don’t miss the hardwood action from WVU Coliseum at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, February 20, 2017. Catch every moment of the game live on ESPN. We will have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball Monday schedule.
College Basketball Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas could very well be winless in conference at this point. The Longhorns are 4-9 in Big 12 play but the four wins have come by a combined 10 points. To their credit however, they have played most teams pretty tough despite the abysmal record. The Longhorns are 14-11 ATS on the season and 6-4 ATS over their last 10.
West Virginia is still looking its wounds after blowing a 14-point lead in the final three minutes against Kansas, a game that would have put the Mountaineers in first place in the Big 12 if they had won. Nonetheless, WVU has had a fantastic season and has covered three in a row. At home, this team is just 5-5 ATS however.
Matchup to Watch
Both of these teams love to press, but West Virginia does it much more effectively than Texas does. The Mountaineers are forcing 21.9 turnovers per game, a number that is a full 4 turnovers higher than any other team in college basketball. At home, WVU is even better, making opponents hand over the rock 23.8 times a game on average. Even Kansas and its veteran guards were susceptible to the pressure when they came to Morgantown.
Although Shaka Smart preaches defensive intensity, the Longhorns just haven’t been good at turning over opponents. They are below average nationally, forcing just 12.8 turnovers per game and those numbers are even worse when you consider how much they press. Additionally, Texas itself can’t handle the pressure. The Longhorns turn the ball over 13.8 times a game and averaging more turnovers than turnovers forced is terrible for a Smart team.
Key Stat
To make matters worse for Texas, this team can’t buy a bucket from the three-point line. The Longhorns are hitting just 29.6 percent of their three-point attempts as a team this season and if you subtract the contributions of the suspended Tevin Mack, that number dips all the way down to 27.5 percent. It’s hard to pull off upsets with bad perimeter shooting and one of the reasons why this team has struggled so much.
West Virginia is much better behind the arc. The Mountaineers are hitting 37 percent from three and while that’s not great, the fact that all of their shooters are hitting at least a third of their attempts means that anyone can be trusted to fire away from range. That helps them be more versatile and difficult to defeat.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
Texas and West Virginia both have issues hitting free throws. The Mountaineers are sinking 67.3 percent of their attempts and the Longhorns are even worse with a 64.8 percent average. These sides tend to get to the line often, but Texas especially can’t afford to leave points off the board.
Let’s be real, West Virginia is going to roll Texas. You can try to talk yourself into making a case for Texas based off Shaka Smart’s coaching or the team’s tough defense, but this team is going to be hounded throughout by WVU’s guards and won’t have an answer.
College Basketball Odds: West Virginia 82, Texas 65
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