The 13-7 Texas Longhorns have a significantly better resume than their middling record suggests. That said, they're the proud owners of wins over Iowa State, West Virginia and North Carolina, and they'll have a shot to add another scalp to the bunch when they take on the Baylor Bears on Monday night.
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HOW THE TEXAS LONGHORNS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It's really a shame that Cameron Ridley is still out injured for the Longhorns. He's a big body in the middle of the paint, and he's the best glass cleaner the team has. We give a lot of credit to Prince Ibeh for stepping up his role and turning into a fine rebounder as well, but his offensive game isn't nearly as good as that of Ridley.
That's why the Longhorns are going to have to hit some threes in this game. That isn't necessarily what Shaka Smart wants to do to win this one, but we just can't see Baylor not getting into the 70s no matter how well the Horns play defensively.
All that means some of the secondary players have to hit some big shots. Eric Davis Jr., Connor Lammert and Tevin Mack all have at least 20 threes this year, and they'll all have to take their turns stepping up and hitting big shots in this one to help out Javan Felix and Isaiah Taylor, the team's top two scorers.
HOW THE BAYLOR BEARS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Part of the reason Baylor was beaten by Oklahoma last weekend was because Rico Gathers didn't hit a single shot from the field. The big man only took two shots, and that simply isn't good enough. Shooting the ball from the outside is all fine and dandy when it works, but Lester Medford has to make the right decisions as the point guard of this team and get the ball down in the blocks when he can.
In a related story to Gathers not hitting a single shot from the field that day, Medford, who averages seven assists per game, was held to just two assists against the Sooners. Those are the two stats which absolutely cannot hold again in this one, or the Bears are going to get run off the court.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
We started this article by talking about the loss of Ridley, and we're going to end it the same way. The Bears are awesome when everything is clicking, but when the offense is rather stagnant and the ball isn't moving, things are just off. Running around quickly and taking shots also gives Gathers the chance to get the ball in the paint off of offensive rebounds. Stick backs are every bit as good as made shots, and there will be more opportunities for that to happen in this NCAAB game to make up for some misses.
In the end, the Longhorns might have some scalps, but for the most part, they haven't played well on the road. We think the general size and strength for Baylor up front is going to be too much for the suddenly undersized Longhorns to overcome, and the backcourt defense won't make all that much of a difference against one of the best ball handling teams in America. It's a bad matchup for Texas, and it'll show on Monday night.
Baylor 73, Texas 62
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