Top 5 teams have been falling all over the place this year, and they've done so more often at home than you probably ever would imagine. The Oklahoma Sooners could legitimately wake up on Monday as the No. 1 team in the land once again, but you can bet they'll be on upset alert against the Texas Longhorns, even at home.
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SCHEDULING
What a bad look-ahead spot this is for the Sooners! They've got a rematch against Kansas from that four-overtime game back in the beginning of January on deck this weekend, and it's hard to not have one eye on that game, especially against a Texas team which is clearly inferior.
However, even though this game comes a day after the Super Bowl, this is the Super Bowl of sorts for the Longhorns. They're going to need a win like this somewhere along the way to reach the dance in all likelihood, and this is premier spot to get it, especially with what should be a relatively easy game against Texas Tech coming on Saturday. Live bettors really have to be aware of the motivation factoring in on both sides.
KEY MATCHUP
The Longhorns have played just absolutely outstanding defense of late, and Kerwin Roach Jr. and Isaiah Taylor have been a big part of the equation. With Cameron Ridley still sidelined, the Horns have had to turn to some smaller lineups. However, one of the switches they've made of late is putting Roach and Taylor on the court together to create a relatively big backcourt, even if the frontcourt is undersized.
These two men have come up big on the defensive end together as a result, and how well they defend against Buddy Hield is going to be the difference between winning and losing this game in live betting. Hield is, of course, quite amazing. He's averaging 25.8 points and 5.7 boards per game, and keeping him under 20 would be a massive accomplishment. We've seen some lesser teams in the Big XII do it though, as Hield has tended to only come up as big as the setting he's playing on, and the Texas guards which are both bigger than he is and quick enough to cause him problems if he's lazy with the ball, could play a massive role.
KEY STATS & TRENDS
The NCAAB season really might've turned around for Texas when it was beaten by TCU on the road on January 9. The very next game, the Longhorns turned around and beat Iowa State in overtime at home, and it has rolled off a 6-1 SU and ATS record since that point, including winning both at Baylor and West Virginia and beating Vanderbilt at home.
Shaka Smart has always built has teams on defense first and foremost, and the fact that his crew has held its last six foes to 60.8 points per game is a big reason why these games have been covered. Live bettors should also note that the under is 5-0 in Texas' last five games.
Oklahoma has struggled some as a single-digit favorite. The Sooners are just 0-5 ATS in their five games as single-digit favorites since the start of December. There's no guarantee that this game is going to be a single-digit spread, but there's a good chance that it plays itself out as if it was, and live bettors should be ready to give a go to the Longhorns at the first sign of this being a 40-minute war.
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