Five wins in a row, including a last second victory over UNC have the Longhorns cruising into Stanford to take on the Cardinal in search of payback. Last season, the Cardinal beat the Longhorns, 74-71 in overtime. This season, the Longhorns have Shaka Smart.
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HOW THE TEXAS LONGHORNS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Smart was brought in to shake things up for Texas, but they’ve got a nice veteran presence in the backcourt to help pace his attack.
Guard Isaiah Taylor paces the Longhorns on offense and is able to push the tempo in Smart’s system while also being the key focal point on the court.
Taylor leads the team in scoring as the primary option, but he’s also far and away the team leader in assists with five per game. In the backcourt alongside Taylor, the Longhorns also have guard Javan Felix who can steal, giving the team added chances. Felix is also a strong outside shooter. He’s sinking 53.3 percent of his shots behind the arc.
With center Cameron Ridley, Texas can also do damage in the post. Ridley is the team’s second highest scorer with 13 PPG, shooting 64 percent down low. He also is the team’s biggest threat on the boards averaging 9.7 boards per game.
Texas is an outside shooting team despite Ridley’s ability down low, and the Cardinal struggle to defend the perimeter shot, allowing the opposition to shoot 36.8 percent from long range.
HOW THE STANFORD CARDINAL CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Longhorns are improving and learning to play Smart’s system that makes them dangerous, but their 2-5 record ATS makes the likelihood of the Cardinal covering the spread much higher; particularly when the Cards themselves have covered four straight games.
Overall, Stanford’s offense isn’t great, averaging just 71.8 PPG. They’ll need to improve on that to hang with a fast paced Texas offense, but they have the shooting accuracy to be better, shooting a respectable 45.6 percent from the floor.
Marcus Allen has missed two games, but when he’s played he’s been as reliable as they come with at least 12 points in all six of his games played. He’s averaging 14.2 PPG to lead the team.
Allen will be asked to help counter Texas’ strong backcourt. If Allen and fellow guard Dorian Pickens can hold the Longhorns on the perimeter, the Cardinal have the quantity inside to do some damage.
To cover the spread, the Cardinal will need to win—or come close to winning—the rebounding battle. Rosco Allen, Reid Travis and Michael Humphrey each have at least 6.4 RPG.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
With Smart and the Longhorns, you have one of the best coaches in college basketball coupled with a very talented roster that has the athletes to allow Smart to run his fast paced style with success.
Earlier this week, it looked like Smart’s team was finally pulling it all together, but the failure to cover the spread against Appalachian State calls into question Texas’ dominance.
That pointspread defeat aside, the Longhorns have won five straight overall and do have plenty of talent to topple the Cardinal.
Look for the Longhorns to control the perimeter with Ridley taking care of business underneath.
Statistically, Texas holds the advantage over Stanford in nearly every category including rebounding, turnover rate, and bench production to add to that superior starting five.
While Stanford has performed admirably at home and has a track record of pulling big upsets recently, don’t look for one here as Texas continues to improve under Smart’s guidance.
Texas 76, Stanford 64
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