The Texas Tech Red Raiders have consistently underachieved in Big XII play, but they aren't all that far away from covering some of these big spreads bestowed upon them. They'll surely be getting a huge number in this one on Tuesday night when they visit the No. 1 team in the land, the Oklahoma Sooners.
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HOW THE TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
With both Norense Odiase and Isaiah Manderson out of the lineup, the Red Raiders have really had to embrace playing a smaller unit on the floor. The problem comes in rebounding the basketball, as Zach Smith is now the team's leading board man at 6.4 per game, and that won't cut it against a team like Oklahoma which tends to play games with lots of rebounding opportunities.
If the Red Raiders are going to have a shot to hang around in this one, they need to get DeVaughtah Williams going again. Williams has only played a total of 31 minutes in his last two games, and he's seemingly falling out of favor in the lineup.
That said, he's also still the team's leading scorer at 12.5 points per game even though he only has a total of five points in his last two affairs.
HOW THE OKLAHOMA SOONERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Oklahoma has had an odd year from a spread standpoint. Sure, the team is winning games left and right, but it also has just one game in which it has both won and covered in the Big XII season, that being the 82-72 win in Waco against Baylor over the weekend.
Covering big spreads has been a big problem for the Sooners. They're a woeful 0-6 ATS yet 6-0 SU when they're laying six or more since December 23.
Ryan Spangler can be the difference between just winning and covering this game. We know Oklahoma’s guards are going to get their points, and it would be shocking to see them end with fewer than 35 combined points on the day, but Spangler can take advantage of the size mismatch he'll have against the Red Raiders.
The fifth year senior has mustered a total of just 13 points and nine rebounds in his last two games, and we suspect he'll need more than that in this game alone to have a shot at covering against a really big spread.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Red Raiders have a knack for covering big spreads, while the Sooners have a knack for not doing so, and we're not ones to argue with history.
Texas Tech has enough depth that it uses with regularity that it could hit the backdoor in this game if that's what it comes down to, as Aaron Ross and Justin Gray are both very capable scorers off the bench and could end up helping out.
We just don't think the small lineup is going to play well against Oklahoma. Buddy Hield and Isaiah Cousins will surely do enough to win this NCAAB game, but we can't see the Sooners taking this one, even at home by more than a dozen or so, especially since this is the first game in a while which they'll have to feel like they can take their foot off the gas pedal after brutal game after brutal game in the Big XII.
Oklahoma 76, Texas Tech 64
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