Rather amazingly, Tulane has cast aside a 12-21 record and five straight losses to turn it on in time for the AAC Championship Tournament. The Green Wave have seen offensive and defensive improvements against UCF and Houston. They’re now in position to advance to the finals with a strong showing on Saturday against Memphis.
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HOW THE TULANE GREEN WAVE CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The fact Tulane is still alive in this tournament is enough to show that anything can happen and the Green Wave could win again.
Tulane topped Houston on Friday, 72-69, despite being 12.5-point underdogs. The Cougars were the No. 2 seed in the conference so, things should be simpler against No. 6 Memphis.
In the game with Houston, Dylan Osetkowski and Louis Dabney were on top of their game, notching 18 and 16 points respectively and combining to go 13-for-24 from the floor.
Dabney’s performance was in line with his season average. He’s the team’s top scorer with 14.6 PPG and controls the backcourt alongside Malik Morgan. The two give the team a formidable combo outside, but the Green Wave typically don’t stack up inside the paint. Osetkowski will need another big game on Saturday to provide a presence inside, particularly with Jernard Jarreau out of commission. Without him Ostekowski is really the team’s loan threat in the post.
Tulane’s last head-to-head meeting with Memphis also lends evidence to the idea Tulane could carry this all the way to the conference final.
The Green Wave beat Memphis in the squad’s last meeting, 94-87 in overtime. Offense is the weak spot for Tulane and we’ve already seen great offensive output for them against the Tigers.
HOW THE MEMPHIS TIGERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Tigers are outscoring the Wave by more than 10 PPG and are the superior team defensively according to nearly all the metrics. The Tigers are ranked No. 31 in all of college hoops in field goal percentage against and No. 18 in percentage behind the arc.
On Friday night, we saw both their offensive and defensive prowess in their 22-point win over Tulsa.
Memphis dominated the boards with 39-rebounds including a pair of double-doubles form Dedric Lawson and Avery Woodson. Lawson shot 8-for-16 from the floor in the game, recording 22-points and 12-rebounds. Woodson, meanwhile put up 12-points and 10-rebounds.
In addition to Lawson and Woodson, Trahson Burrell added 19-points and Ricky Tarrant scored 21. That’s four players with at least 19-points each.
The frontcourt in particular is why the Tigers should get the easy win SU and cover the spread. Ostekowski had a nice game on Friday for Tulane, but has little help. Memphis, meanwhile, has Lawson and Shaq Goodwin with 15.6 and 14.9 PPG each on the inside. The outside, on the other hand, is deep enough, too, with Tarrant and Woodson.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Statistically, this should be an easy win for the Tigers, but the same could’ve been said for Houston heading into Friday.
While it’s fun to see an underdog team make a run like this—and profitable if you were able to see it coming—it’s unlikely to last. Memphis handled a much tougher Tulsa team with ease, 89-67, and have a team whose offense has scored more than 10 points more per game than Tulane’s.
The Tigers struggles at the end of the NCAAB season have me a bit on edge about this one. After all, we’ve seen the Green Wave play up to their opposition and the offense take a step forward. Nevertheless, it’s not enough of a jump to bet on them to continue this unlikely ride, particularly when the Tigers are holding opponents to a 40 percent field goal percentage.
Memphis 75, Tulane 64
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