A key Pac-12 match-up will go in Tucson on Friday when No. 17 Arizona hosts UCLA. The Bruins enter 13-10 overall and a disappointing 4-6 in Pac-12 play while the Wildcats are 19-5 and 7-4 in league play following their road sweep against the Washington schools last weekend.
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HOW THE UCLA BRUINS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
The Bruins have lost three of their last four games including 14 and 19-point road losses at league leaders Oregon and USC. Now they’ll try to avoid another double-digit dismantling at Arizona.
The Bruins average 80 points per game in Pac-12 play and leads the league in assists, but their deficient defense also allows 80 PPG on 44 percent FG shooting and they have a negative turnover margin. Isaac Hamilton is tied for No. 2 in league scoring at nearly 18 points per game while guard Bryce Alford is the top perimeter threat scoring 17 points per game.
For the Bruins to stay competitive and have a shot at the big upset, they need strong interior play from their leaders Thomas Welsh and senior Tony Parker, who are top-6 in rebounding with 10 and eight per game. Freshman guard Aaron Holiday is another solid scorer at 12 points per game and leads the team in steals, and UCLA has the offensive personnel and balance to keep this in range if their shots are falling.
HOW THE ARIZONA WILDCATS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
The Wildcats have one home loss to Oregon this season and coach Sean Miller’s Wildcats will be at least a 12-point favorite as they play with redemption for the 87-84 loss absorbed at Pauley Pavilion back on January 7.
Arizona leads the Pac-12 in shooting hitting 50 percent including 44 percent from the arc. That should serve them well against a deficient UCLA defense that allows a league-high 3-pointers and 36 percent long-range shooting. The battle on the boards favors league-best Arizona also with a near plus-10 rebounding margin and eight rebounds per game better than the Bruins. Arizona also gets to the free throw line often and converts at a league-best 76 percent from the charity stripe.
Seniors Ryan Anderson and 7-footer Kaleb Tarczewski give them a pair of powerful players in the post who are top-4 in rebounding at 10 and nine per game. Anderson also scores 17 points per game with a league-best 64 percent shooting with 22 and 31 points his last two games.
Senior Gabe York provides the perimeter pop at 14 points per game and leads the league in 3-point scoring with freshman guard Allonzo Trier out with injury. Seniors Mark Tollefsen and Kadeem Allen are key contributors inside and out with Allen also leading the team in assist and steals.
Arizona’s defense is not as stout as recent seasons allowing opponents to convert at a 42 percent clip in league play. However, the Wildcats do rank No. 2 in the country holding opponents off the offensive glass and if they are strong against the Bruins solid interior duo, then Arizona will tally its redemption win.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The McKale Center has the Pac-12’s biggest crowds at over 14,000 per game, and the Bruins are in for a rude welcome in this redemption rematch for the Wildcats. UCLA has clearly underachieved in conference play, and recall the Bruins beat both Kentucky and Gonzaga in non-conference play and then beat these Wildcats in their third conference game.
The Bruins are going to be catching big points and while their road woes and defensive deficiencies are a concern, UCLA can and will score in this contest. Of course, Arizona’s strong play and scoring at home makes them a worthy favorite, but I’m not interested in laying these big points even in redemption in what sets up to be a high-scoring shootout.
Arizona 91, UCLA 80
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