No. 20 Gonzaga comes off a home loss to Arizona last Saturday, and a close call over Montana Tuesday 61-58 as an 18-point favorite. The Bulldogs should fire back strong against UCLA, but the Zags are clearly over-valued in the first month with the changes in the back court impacting performance.
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HOW THE UCLA BRUINS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
UCLA is not as strong on the boards or defensively as Arizona, who just beat Gonzaga, so the Bruins will try to push the ball more in transition and see if sharp shooting guard Bryce Alford can get hot from the perimeter. He leads the Bruins in scoring at 16 points per game with over five assists per game and the sharp shooter forms a solid inside/outside combo with senior big body Tony Parker, who is averaging a double-double for the Bruins.
But the improved play of sophomore 7-foot center Thomas Welsh will be key for the Bruins in this contest and match-ups inside. Welsh is up to 13 points and 10 rebounds per game on 63 percent shooting, and was just named Pac-12 player of the week for his performance in beating No. 1 Kentucky last week. Welsh had 21 points and 11 rebounds against Kentucky, and gives them a rim protector and interior presence alongside Parker.
Gonzaga has countered any 3-point shooting deficiencies of their own by defending the perimeter exceptionally well, limiting opponents to 23 percent shooting from the arc to rank No. 3 in the country and 36 percent overall.
HOW THE GONZAGA BULLDOGS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
The Zags feature one of the biggest premier front courts in the country led by Kyle Wiltjer.
The cerebral senior pours in 20 points per game on 50 percent shooting with solid rebounding and can stretch the floor as he takes nearly six three-pointers per game. He had 20 points in the opening ten minutes against Washington State, and then followed that up with 20 points in the first half against Arizona to finish with 33. He can clearly take over a game, but part of the Zags problem recently is Gonzaga hasn't provided him with any perimeter help.
In the last five games, Wiltjer has made 16 of the team's 44 three pointers, including all three against Arizona and two of the four against Montana. The rest of the team is just 5-for-30 in the last three games.
Senior 7-footter Przemek Karnowski is a beast in the block but he did not play in the last three games due to back spasms, so check his status. Domantas Sabonis has a great feel and motor to complete the big three inside and he had 18 points and 16 rebounds against Arizona and is averaging a double-double.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Gonzaga is 5-2 with a lone 1-point loss to No. 25 Texas A&M in the Bahamas and last Saturday to Arizona. They were laying 7.5 points to the Wildcats last game, who were missing their star center, and Arizona pulled the outright road win. The Zags have beaten top-20 UCONN and will be eager to beat their third Pac-12 team after also taking down Washington and Washington State.
Now Gonzaga will be laying high single-digits against UCLA, and while the Bruins aren’t as strong as Arizona, it’s still a reach to ask them to win by a big margin. The Bulldogs rely more on their strength inside. New sophomore starting guards are fitting in with Josh Perkins developing at the point. UCLA will try to pack the paint and bring rotations to cover Wiltjer, as the Zags perimeter shooting is suspect and struggling outside of their star forward.
Gonzaga’s perimeter play is what’s holding them back and has them over-valued. Not sure they will extend enough against a Bruins team that has scorers inside and out.
Gonzaga 76, UCLA 73
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