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The UCLA Bruins have really struggled this year on the road in Pac-12 play, and they could be up against it when they take on the Oregon Ducks, who have one of the best home court advantages in the Pac-12.
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HOW THE UCLA BRUINS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Bruins clearly have some potential this year, as they've beaten Arizona, Gonzaga and Kentucky already on the young campaign. However, they've also inexplicably lost to Washington State and Washington on the road.
It's all about the defense in this game for UCLA. The math is frighteningly simple. Allow more than 80 points in the game, and the Bruins are going to lose. Keep teams under 75, they're going to win.
The Bruins have played five straight over games coming into Wednesday's duel with Oregon State, and though strong offense has had a lot to do with it, the defense has surrendered at least 84 points in four of the five showings in conference play thus far this year.
Allowing 77.5 points per game just isn't going to cut it at this level, even with an offense averaging 80.1 points per game and almost 83 points per game in conference play.
HOW THE OREGON DUCKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Ducks don't quite run up and down the court the way they used to in yesteryear, but they'll want to get back to some of that for sure in this game. Dillon Brooks, Tyler Dorsey and Chris Boucher will all get theirs, but the real key is going to be getting Elgin Cook going. He and Brooks are both like point guards on the floor who are extremely tall for their positions, and they can be matchup nightmares.
Of course, if those two men aren't at their best, Oregon could have problems on the glass against UCLA's front line. Both Tony Parker and Thomas Welsh are double-double candidates night in and night out, and the Ducks just don't have those big, hulking seven footers who can be enforcers in the paint on both sides of the court.
As a result, hitting a bunch of threes is going to be key. We've seen Oregon come darn near 20 threes in games in the past. That might be a bit high for this one, but anything less than 10 triples or so could end up being a big disappointment against one of the highest scoring teams in the Pac-12.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Until we see UCLA win a road game in conference play, color us anything but believers. The Bruins have had their ups and their downs, but we just don't see them as ready to go on the road against the second tier of teams in the Pac-12 and win more often than not.
This NCAAB game could be a renaissance of sorts for the Ducks. They've survived a lot of the biggest battles in the conference already this year, and they're ready for this challenge, particularly on their screwy floor at Matthew Knight Arena. Look for Cook to explode for a 20+ point game, and he'll end up being the difference against a UCLA team which isn't going to have a man who has both his quickness and his size to counter him.
Oregon 88, UCLA 81
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