Time is officially running out on the UCLA Bruins. They're only at 15 wins coming into the last two weeks of the regular season, and anything less than 20 wins by the end of the Pac-12 Tournament would likely spell a trip to the NIT. If they lose to the Stanford Cardinal on Saturday, odds have it, they can pack it in for the rest of the year.
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SCHEDULING
Both of these teams have relatively short turnarounds playing on Thursday night and Saturday afternoon, and in both cases, the road ahead is quite tough. Stanford has to take on USC on Thursday night at Maples Pavilion while UCLA heads to Berkeley to face Cal.
Of course, this game has a lot more meaning to the Bruins, who are still fighting for a shot for the NCAA Tournament. However, it should be noted that this is the final game of the year for the Cardinal at home, and that means it's the last time Rosco Allen, Grant Verhoeven and Christian Sanders, the three starting seniors will suit up at Maples Pavilion.
KEY MATCHUP
We're a little concerned about Thomas Welsh. The 7-footer has a huge advantage on everyone else on the floor with his height, but he's more or less been forgotten in the UCLA lineup. He hasn't had a game beyond his scoring average in seven straight, topping out at 10 points in those games, and he hasn't had a double-double in February. In a related story, the Bruins have only outrebounded three of their last seven foes, and they're only 3-4 SU in those games.
Welsh really has to be involved in this one, knowing that Stanford isn't a great rebounding team as it is. No one on the team is bigger than 6-foot-9, and that's a whopping three inch advantage on anyone who is going to try to stand up to him in the low block. We find that when Welsh is a part of the offense, things are going better for the Bruins, while on defense, his presence as a shot blocker and a glass cleaner tends to force teams into taking more long shots.
Stanford isn't a great three-point shooting team as it is at 32.4 percent, and its 41.9 percent shooting percentage from the field is one of the worst in the Pac-12. If Welsh is making his presence felt on both sides of the court, live bettors for the Bruins should have a field day.
KEY STATS & TRENDS
Allen feels like he really goes at this alone sometimes. Stanford scored 53 points against Washington last Saturday, and Allen scored 20 of those 53. In fact, Allen has played all but nine minutes in Stanford's last four games, and he's scored over 28 percent of its points in that span.
The Cardinal have played four of their last five games under the total, including failing to get there against Washington by 39 points.
UCLA has been split right down the middle this year for bettors. The Bruins are 4-4 ATS and 4-4 for total bettors in their eight legit road games this season, though it should be noted that they've played well against the Pac-12 bottom feeders on the road. Games against Arizona State and Oregon State each ended with easy covers. However, the roadie at Washington State was poor, as the Bruins were topped 85-78.
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