Villanova has not advanced out of the opening weekend since 2009 and is 3-5 – with three losses as a 1 or 2 seed. Here come the Wildcats again as a 2 seed in the South with an uneasy history making them a shaky Final Four pick. Will this year’s team face added pressure or use recent failures as motivation?
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UNC Asheville Bulldogs +17.5
Villanova Wildcats -17.5
Over/Under: 141.5
HOW THE UNC ASHEVILLE BULLDOGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Bulldogs have been underdogs all season, so entering their fourth NCAA Tournament as the highest seed in program history is a welcome challenge. UNC Asheville was picked seventh in the Big South preseason poll after last season’s leading scorer, Andrew Rowsey, transferred to Marquette.
However, from the outset the Bulldogs showed signs of exceeding those expectations, finishing second in the Great Alaska Shootout, and defeating East Tennessee State and Georgetown in consecutive games.
Coach Nick McDevitt starts two freshmen and two sophomores and the group is young enough to not know they shouldn’t be competitive. First year players Dylan Smith and Dwayne Sutton have ice water in their veins and won’t be fazed by the big boys from the Big East.
All five starters average in double figures, led by Smith at 13.5 points per game. He nailed a game-winner at the horn to beat Furman on Dec. 29. Sutton led the team in rebounding with 7.8 per contest and dominated the Big South title game with 25 points and 18 boards.
HOW THE VILLANOVA WILDCATS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Wildcats appeared poised for a top seed before losing to Seton Hall in Saturday’s Big East tournament final. They settled for a No. 2 seed, but that is inconsequential considering Villanova’s checkered past as a single-digit seed.
Villanova has not made it out of the NCAA Tournament’s first weekend since 2009, but the current roster was ranked No. 1 in the nation as recently as last month and comes with a variety of dangerous weapons.
Josh Hart, a first-team All-Big East performer, is the team’s best and most consistent player. Along with senior Ryan Arcidiacono and freshman Jalen Brunson, the Wildcats have an impressive backcourt that can handle the constant pressure UNCA will be bring.
A key figure for Nova is Daniel Ochefu, who’s been bothered by an ankle injury that’s limited his minutes and production. He played 19 minutes off the bench against Seton Hall and is getting mobility back. His presence down low can’t be matched, and if Ochefu is even close to full strength, he’ll be a difference-maker.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
No doubt UNCA closely watched tape of how Seton Hall worked Villanova in the Big East title game. The Wildcats were outmuscled and didn’t handle the pressure very well in the loss. The Bulldogs lack the physicality of Seton Hall, but will counter with five players of similar size – between 6-4 and 6-6 – on the floor. Such versatility allows the Bulldogs to become somewhat void of positions, mix defenses, constantly switch with on-ball screens and apply chaotic fullcourt pressure that forced teams into turnovers on 22.4 percent of possessions. It also helped stifle opponent’s production from beyond the three-point line.
It might be an unrealistic expectation to rattle a seasoned club like Villanova, but that’s how the Bulldogs got here and they aren’t going to change. The presence of Ochefu down low will eliminate that threat and allow Nova to spread the floor for Hart and Kris Jenkins to take over.
Villanova 75, UNC Asheville 61
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