There won’t be any surprises out of the Colonial Athletic Association with the top two teams battling for the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. The UNC Wilmington Seahawks ended the regular season one game better than the Charleston Cougars and the two were easily the best teams in the league. They’ll meet in the CAA tournament final with one having its six-game winning streak end and the other celebrating a trip to the Big Dance.
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Both teams enter riding six-game winning streaks and covered in their semifinal tournament wins. Prior to their win over William and Mary, the Seahawks were just 2-7-1 ATS, while the Cougars entered their semifinal matchup with Towson with a 3-4 ATS record in their previous seven games. And if the regular season matchups between these two are any indication, the championship game should be a good one.
UNCW’s only home loss of the season came against the Cougars, 67-66, when the Seahawks were pegged as a 7.5-point favorite. Two weeks earlier it was the Seahawks posting a 65-59 win on the road while covering the 3.5-point spread. Playing on a neutral court, the line will be slim, but the game is in Charleston’s backyard, which could give the Cougars the slight edge in the matchup.
Key Stat
The Seahawks were easily the highest scoring team in the CAA and managed to score over 85 points per game, which also ranked 10th in the country. Charleston, meanwhile, is the top defensive club in the conference allowing only 63.7 points per game and limited James Madison to 62 points in the quarterfinals and Towson to 59 in the semis. The outcome here will clearly be decided on which team is able to execute its game plan.
The Cougars allowed just 66 and 65 points in their two meetings with UNCW and played well enough to win both games. But it was the Seahawks who stepped up defensively in the first contest, holding Charleston to just 29 percent shooting to offset their own difficulties from the field. UNCW is on top of its game offensively in the tournament, averaging 98 points in wins over Delaware and William and Mary, while shooting 53.4 percent combined from the field.
Last Meeting
In a game that came down to the wire, it was the Cougars who pulled into a first-place tie in the conference with a 67-66 win on the road. Charleston made the plays in crunch time and UNCW didn’t as the Cougars handed the Seahawks their first, and only, home loss of the season. The Seahawks had every opportunity to win the game. They shot 51 percent from the floor and did enough defensively to get a victory. However, they committed 15 turnovers.
And they struggled from the three-point and free throw line, two areas that proved costly late in the ball game. Down by a pair with under eight seconds remaining, Denzel Ingram missed a three-pointer. Chris Flemmings grabbed the rebound and was fouled, but made just 1 of 2 as UNCW couldn’t tie it up. The Seahawks connected on just 4 of 19 three-pointers and converted only 12 of 23 from the stripe to aid in the defeat. UNCW ranks fourth in the conference in both categories, but the inability to make crucial shots cost them a victory.
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Though they split the season series, Charleston had the better of the play by limiting the high-scoring Seahawks to 20 points below their season average. The Cougars hounded UNCW into plenty of turnovers and unforced errors, essentially taking them out of their game. And the Cougars have a slight advantage with this game being played in their backyard, which should be worth a few points on its own.
Both teams are playing well heading into the title game with each riding a six-game winning streak, and they’ve done it with their strength. The Seahawks are scoring and the Cougars are preventing teams from lighting it up. This will likely be a close one, but the Cougars are poised to come out ahead with a defensive effort that has carried them all season long.
College Basketball Odds: Charleston 66, UNC-Wilmington 64
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