No. 13 Arizona is 9-1 and will be laying near double-digits at home against a talented UNLV team that is 8-2 with a pair of close losses to UCLA and Wichita State away from home.
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HOW THE UNLV RUNNIN’ REBELS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
This is a big mismatch on the bench with UNLV coach Rice being out-maneuvered by Arizona bench boss Sean Miller. But the Rebels have a very talented and deep team that can press and push the pace. Thus far, UNLV is not shooting the ball well as their new players acclimate to each other. But this is a team good enough to beat No. 13 Indiana and No. 15 Oregon on neutral courts.
A 77-75 loss to UCLA is one the Rebels could have won, but their win two days later over Indiana playing their third game in three days speaks volumes. As does their 56-50 near miss at Wichita State as the Rebels showed guts and determination not seen in last year’s team despite a poor shooting night in a low-possession game.
UNLV has a deep back court with Ike Nwamu, Jerome Seagears and rising national star Patrick McCaw, who is averaging 17 points per game on 45 percent shooting from the arc while averaging more than three steals per game. Senior transfer guard Seagears and Nwamu are both capable scorers while freshman springboard Derrick Jones is scoring 11 points per game with increased minutes. Jordan Cornish hit 48 percent from the arc last season but has been abysmal this year.
The Rebels can match-up inside with star freshman 7-foot center Stephen Zimmerman scoring 10 and rebounding eight per game and senior transfer Ben Carter giving the Rebels 9/6 in his return home to Las Vegas.
Along with Jones and Dwayne Morgan, UNLV is capable of getting on the glass but will need more on offense for second-chance points.
HOW THE ARIZONA WILDCATS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
The Wildcats lone loss came in their first game without senior 7-foot center Kaleb Tarczewski, who is out into early January with a foot injury. Watching his team execute sporadically over the last three weeks has given Arizona coach Sean Miller plenty of headaches.
The Wildcats had a season-high 21 turnovers in the loss to Providence playing in back-to-back tournament games, and had 17-more turnovers against Boise State. But the Wildcats played their most complete game of the season in an 88-55 rout of Missouri and also beat No. 13 Gonzaga on the road 68-63 on December 5.
Dusan Ristic is another 7-footer now seeing the floor more with Tarczewski’s absence with six points and six rebounds in 17 minutes per game. While senior forward Ryan Anderson leads the team in scoring and rebounding with 16/9, and fellow senior sharp shooter Gabe York is scoring 14 points per game on 43 percent shooting from the arc, it’s freshman guard Allonzo Trier that is the one to watch.
The 6-foot-6 swingman is the current Pac-12 player of the week after averaging 17 points on 72 percent shooting in the Wildcats current four-game winning streak.
Arizona is one of the Pac-12’s top teams once again and has plenty of quickness. They’re top-3 in the country in offensive steal percentage and top-5 in limiting opponents offensive rebounds.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Rebels are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU win so check Wednesday’s results against Arizona State in Las Vegas. UNLV shocked Arizona last year in Las Vegas 71-67 as a 12-point home puppy, and recall UNLV also took then No. 2 Arizona to the wire two years ago in Tucson 61-58 as a 16-point ‘Dog.
The under is 7-1 in the Rebels last eight games but this game could have more pace and scoring.
UNLV coach Dave Rice has indicated this team would press and push the pace more this season, and the Rebels have a deep, athletic team that can play various ways in transition. Both teams rank top-20 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and while the UNLV offense has not hit its stride or shot the ball as well as they are capable yet, we envision a game of pressure and pace and the Rebels keeping it close and putting a scare into Arizona and their nation-best 44-game home winning streak.
Arizona 75, UNLV 71
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