To say that this season hasn't gone the way the Wichita State Shockers envisioned would be a huge understatement. They've already lost four times, three of which came in games in which they were favorites. That makes this Wednesday's game against a talented UNLV Runnin' Rebels team all the more dangerous.
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HOW THE UNLV RUNNIN' REBELS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Give the Rebs a lot of credit for their 6-1 start to the season. Sure, they've played a lot of throwaway games against Prairie View, Chaminade, Southern Utah and New Mexico Highlands, but the team has beaten Oregon and Indiana and had UCLA dead to rights before losing by a bucket as well.
Stephen Zimmerman Jr. is really going to be the key man in this one. The Shockers have been great for the last several seasons, but they've never really had that elite big man in the middle to defend against fellow monsters. Zimmerman is a legit 7-footer who is averaging just shy of a double-double this year.
Short of a real dud against Indiana, Zimmerman has been great in big games. He came up with 12 points, 12 boards and four blocks against Oregon, another team without a legit center, and he also had 10 points, 13 rebounds and four swats against UCLA.
If Zimmerman gets going, there's definitely enough scoring possibility in place with Patrick McCaw, Jerome Seagears and Derrick Jones Jr. to lead the Rebels to a victory in this game on the road against a team which figured to be a lock for the dance at the outset of the season.
HOW THE WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It's becoming clear just how important Anton Grady is to the Wichita State effort. He's been out with a head injury for a couple weeks now, and the Shockers just don't look good on either side of the court without him.
So how are they supposed to overcome the loss of their best player? Getting great play from Fred VanVleet would be a big help. VanVleet is a typical point guard, but he's only played in three of the team's games this year as well. He's back, and he can only help generate more points on a team which is shooting just 39.2 percent from the field and 31.0 percent from long range.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
We haven't touched on this yet, but part of the reason why the Rebels are in good shape this year is because McCaw is one of the many ball hawks in this backcourt. McCaw alone is responsible for forcing over four turnovers per game, but in this one, he's going against one of the best ball handlers in the nation in VanVleet.
Yes, not having Grady is going to hurt a ton, but the Shockers should be back on track with VanVleet now back in the fold. This isn't the deepest WSU team we've seen in recent years, but it's good enough to win this game at home.
Expect to see both VanVleet and Ron Baker have solid games en route to leading the hosts to the must-have home win and cover.
Wichita State 72, UNLV 62
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