Fourth year USC coach Andy Enfield has the Trojans off to their best start at 14-3 including 3-1 in Pac-12 play and 11-0 at home for the first time since 1973. UCLA is 2-2 in league play following a pair of wins last weekend including over No. 7 Arizona, and the Trojans are 9-1 at home this season.
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HOW THE USC TROJANS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
Point guard Julian Jacobs leads the league in assists and he was instrumental in the Trojans four overtime win over Arizona last Saturday. Jacobs had 18 points, nine assists and seven steals, and point guard Jordan McLaughlin is No. 2 in steals and added 17 points versus Arizona. Big guard Elijah Stewart gives them another double-digit scorer and sharp shooter on the perimeter.
Jacobs re-aggravated a left ankle injury against Washington and had missed practice last week leading up to the weekend games against Arizona and Arizona State.
The Trojans are tough to guard when those two are on the floor together, and that makes this match-up one to watch with plenty of pressing and up-and-down play. USC is averaging 84 points per game this season yet no player is in the top-20 of Pac-12 scoring.
UCLA is allowing a league-worst 77 points per game and is inefficient while forcing among the fewest turnovers. The Bruins also allow a league-high 24 three-point attempts per game and USC fires 21 three-pointers per game with a league-best 41 percent accuracy to rank among the best in the county.
While the up-tempo Trojans are playing to coach Enfield’s style, its USC’s defense that has improved significantly ranking top-20 in effective FG defense percentage with near 7-footer Nikola Jovanovic providing 12 points and nearly eight rebounds per game to go along with some solid shot-blocking. So too is freshman Bennie Boatwright with 12 points per game despite poor shooting.
Those two players ability to battle UCLA’s big body Tony Parker inside will be a match-up to watch. The Trojans can run with the Bruins and have the shooters to turn the tables in an up-and down shootout.
HOW THE UCLA BRUINS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
UCLA has some of the most impressive wins of any college basketball team. It has defeated Kentucky, Gonzaga in Spokane, WA, and, most recently,Arizona. But there are also some baffling losses which include falling at Washington State as short road chalk.
No one questions the Bruins offense, but the defensive effort is inconsistent and the Bruins allow 77 points per game and their 42 percent FG defense ranks them No. 9 in the league. The Bruins also rank last in blocked shots despite some strong interior players like Tony Parker at 13 points and 10 rebounds per game and 7-footer Thomas Welsh at 13 points and nine rebounds per game.
Bryce Alford is pure shooter on the perimeter and hit the game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer against Arizona.
The Bruins have been tested and beaten some of the best teams, and have proven their strength at home with wins over Kentucky and Arizona which should have them ready for this tilt against their most hated rival.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Bruins blasted the Trojans three times last season while averaging 87 points per game with each victory coming by way of double-digits. However, the improved Trojans appear ready for a second-straight big game following a confidence-building four-overtime thrilling win over Arizona.
USC should be catching up to seven-points and are clearly capable of rolling up a big number on UCLA’s deficient defense. Despite a very high total into the mid-160’s, only a shootout should be expected in this key Pac-12 brawl.
USC 88, UCLA 86
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Click here and start wagering today! The matchup between the USC Trojans and UCLA Bruins will go down Wednesday, January 13, 2016, at 11:00 p.m. ET at Pauley Pavilion. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN2.
