The Texas State Bobcats haven't been in great form of late, losing their last four games. However, if they look at their home form at 4-1 ATS, they've definitely got a legitimate chance of knocking off the favored UT-Arlington Mavericks on Tuesday night.
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HOW THE UT-ARLINGTON MAVERICKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
This game is going to be all about the pace. The Mavericks love to get up and down the court, as demonstrated by the fact that they average 81.2 points per game in spite of the fact that they shoot just 42.0 percent from the field and 33.2 percent from beyond the arc.
All five starters scored in double figures against Georgia State over the weekend, and we've seen the Mavericks do that a ton this year. The problem they're running into is that leading scorer and rebounder Kevin Hervey has been out for almost a month with a knee injury and is unlikely to be ready to go in this one on Tuesday night.
Jorge Bilbao isn't quite the size of Hervey, but he's coming off of a game in which he had 18 points and 11 boards, and he could be a huge key in this one.
Erick Neal also has to be big at the point guard spot. He's not a great shooter at 40.1 percent, but he has almost a 3:1 assist to turnover ratio and is good for 13.9 points per game.
HOW THE TEXAS STATE BOBCATS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Whereas the Mavericks are going to try to push the tempo of this game a ton, the Bobcats are going to have to slow it down. They're horribly inefficient on both sides of the ball, and they average a dozen turnovers per game, a number they're going to have to be careful about in this game.
Kavin Gilder-Tilbury has had the ball in his hands a ton in recent games, and he's going to have to have a big game here for the Bobcats. The junior looks rather innocent at 12.8 points per game, but he's had 12 straight games with double-digits in scoring.
The shooting just has to be better than the average of 42.7 percent for the year, too. The Mavericks average almost 45 rebounds per game, second best in the nation, and they turn those rebounds into transition points as well as any mid-major team in the country.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Home court advantage is a big deal in the Sun Belt, and many square bettors probably won't realize that and just blindly bet on what is perceived to be the better of these two teams.
However, with UTA missing its best player in Hervey, we really think it's set to get picked off here. The pace of this game could ultimately get frustrating for the Mavericks. Throw in a few threes here and there by the Bobcats, and this is the type of game which could get a little out of control for the visitors for stretches.
Talent will surely have its moments in this game, but that 4-1 ATS mark at home for Texas State is just too good to pass on, knowing that it's sure to be a short dog Tuesday night under the national spotlight.
Texas State 71, UT-Arlington 66
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Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The contest pitting the UT-Arlington Mavericks versus the Texas State Bobcats will commence Tuesday, February 9, 2016 at 9:00 p.m. ET at Strahan Coliseum. See the game live on ESPN2.
