This isn’t the dominant Kentucky team we witnessed make a historic run last season, and opponents have said they are beatable. Just ask the Auburn Tigers, who were the fourth un-ranked team to beat the Wildcats this season. Could the Vanderbilt Commodores be next in line?
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HOW THE VANDERBILT COMMODORES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Vanderbilt returned nearly every key player from a team that won eight of its final 10 league games last season to reach the NIT. That such a promising nucleus hasn’t produced more success so far this season makes Vanderbilt one of the nation’s biggest disappointments.
But back-to-back home wins over Auburn and Alabama last week hinted that Vanderbilt could get near the level of the lofty expectations it carried early in the season.
Kentucky has churned out some athletic NBA big men over the past few seasons, but Vanderbilt actually has a chance to take the advantage in the paint this time. The Cats’ trio of 6-foot-9 Marcus Lee, 6-8 Alex Poythress and 7-1 freshman Skal Labissiere are ultra-talented, but they were tagged “no shows” by coach John Calipari after some inconsistent performances, especially in upset losses to LSU and Auburn. Vanderbilt seven-footers Damian Jones and Luke Kornet could boost their eventual NBA draft stock with a big performance at Rupp Arena.
Two games apiece against Kentucky, Texas AM and Florida remain on the schedule and the Commodores showed signs of playing to their potential. They will get credit for playing so many tough games in and out of conference play, but they’ll have to start winning some of those for it to truly matter come tournament time, and a win in Lexington will be the signature victory the team is lacking so far.
HOW THE KENTUCKY WILDCATS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
This isn’t the Kentucky team we’ve gotten used to watching under Calipari. Gone are the dominant post players with hyphenated names and the Harrison brothers from last season’s historic run. And here now is a group of talented but raw underclassmen trying to carry the torch.
Teams sense the Wildcats are beatable and a win over the fabled program is a big deal. So Kentucky is getting the best shot from its opponent on a nightly basis. A stunning defeat at Auburn last weekend had many wondering if the Cats are still reaching their potential or if they just aren’t very good.
However, coach Cal took hope in two recent developments. Reserve guard Dominique Hawkins is expected to return soon. He will boost Kentucky’s inconsistent energy level, a quality needed against consistently zealous opponents. And the darling of the recruiting world, Skal Labissiere is making progress.
Improved play down low from the highly-touted recruit will take pressure of Tyler Ulis, Jamal Murray and Isaiah Briscoe. But UK’s backcourt needs to be good against a Vandy team that has an advantage in the post. Alex Poythress and Marcus Lee need to at least show up.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Vandy sure missed Kornet when he was out of the lineup for several games with a knee injury. The Commodores went 2-3 in his absence and missed his offensive versatility, his rebounding and his ability to protect the rim. Jones hasn’t made the strides many predicted from him, leaving much of the heavy lifting up to Wade Baldwin. While Baldwin hasn’t failed, he just can’t do it all by himself. Vandy played the way many expected them to while sweeping last week’s games for their first SEC wins of the year. But Vandy is susceptible to defensive pressure from superior athletic clubs, and Kentucky falls into that category. The Wildcats will create turnovers and when they don’t, they’ll pressure the Commodores into poor shots. The result will be easy buckets in transition, negating Vandy’s advantage in the post. UK is still damn good and will likely get better as the season progresses.
Kentucky 78, Vanderbilt 69
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