Last time these two teams faced each other, the Commodores got the win and started the Aggies’ four game losing streak. Texas A&M has since rebounded with five straight wins. They’ll try and avoid another tailspin heading into the SEC Tournament.
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HOW THE VANDERBILT COMMODORES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Vanderbilt beat the Aggies SU and covered the spread last time thanks to an offense that scored 77 points and shot over 50 percent from the floor.
The team combined amazing accuracy with a balanced attack and got great shooting efforts from Jeff Roberson, Luke Kornet and Damian Jones. Roberson in particular shot 8-of-10 from the floor and led the team with 20-points.
Of course, it wasn’t just the offense that was on. Defensively, Vandy recorded seven blocks and eight more boards than Texas A&M. The Commodores also held the Aggies to 36.8 percent shooting from the field.
Overall, those numbers aren’t really too far off Vanderbilt’s averages. The Commodores are ranked No. 6 in college basketball allowing just 38.4 percent shooting against all opposition.
While the defense is good, so is the offense. They’ve won four straight games, covering the spread in each, and have scored at least 80-points in five of their last seven games. They haven’t tallied less than 74 points since the end of January.
They’ve only got two players scoring more than 10 PPG in guard Wade Baldwin IV and center Damian Jones.
Baldwin leads the backcourt that also includes Matthew Fisher-Davis while the 7-foot Jones is the focal point of a frontcourt stacked with Jeff Roberson and Luke Kornet. Each of the team’s five starters average at least 9.3 PPG while the team has a number of other strong bench players.
HOW THE TEXAS A&M AGGIES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Aggies don’t have quite as prolific of an offense based on the stats as the Commodores, but defensively, they’re allowing fewer PPG. They also have a greater rebound differential against their opponents.
It’s true that the Aggies lost to Vandy by 17-points last month, but this game is at home and Texas A&M is 7-4-1 ATS as hosts while the Commodores are just 4-7 ATS when on the road.
Texas A&M is also back on track after a bit of a rough spell during their last meeting. It’s now won five straight, going 4-1 ATS in that stretch.
Jalen Jones and Danuel House are a hard combination to overcome for Baldwin and Fisher-Davis in the backcourt. Both players are averaging over 15 PPG. If both are on their game, the Aggies have the edge outside and center Tyler Davis can matchup with Damian Jones inside.
To cover the spread, the Aggies need better shooting numbers from those three players and they should get that. It’s unrealistic to expect the Aggies to shoot only 36.8 percent from the floor again, particularly at home.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Aggies are the better team this year. They rank in the top-25 and own the better overall record in SEC play.
Texas A&M should also be extra motivated as it takes on the Commodores. Look for the Aggies to be out for revenge and to help secure it’s seeding in the SEC Tournament as that is still up for grabs.
Jalen Jones shooting 1-for-13 really hurt Texas A&M last time. Look for him to be much better this time out and that’ll be enough to turn the tide.
Texas A&M 75, Vanderbilt 69
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Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The game between the Vanderbilt Commodores and Texas A&M Aggies will start at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 5, 2016, at the Reed Arena. You can watch the game live on ESPN2.
