The SEC/Big XII Challenge is an interest experiment coming dab smack in the middle of conference play. Many of the teams pitting against each other between these conferences at the end of January badly need big non-conference victories to boost their NCAA Tournament resumes. The Texas Longhorns are the perfect example. They've got some bulk to their docket, but they also don't have a great won/loss record that you look for in a tourney team. Saturday's game against the Vanderbilt Commodores could end up being a tipping point in the season come Selection Sunday.
You can bet on college basketball odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
HOW THE VANDERBILT COMMODORES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Vandy has one of the few teams in America which legitimately has more size than Texas does. The Commodores put two 7-footers on the court at the same time in Luke Kornet and Damian Jones, and history suggests that both have to play relatively well in order to give them a shot to cover the spread.
Of course, with all this size on the floor, guard play is going to be overlooked, but it's going to be vital for Wade Baldwin IV to carry the scoring load. With the way Texas plays smothering defense at times, Baldwin will have the ball in his hands a ton and will be expected to make plays happen. He's averaging 15.0 points per game, but more important in this one might be his 4.4 assists per game. He's turning the ball over three times per game as well.
If you were to look at one stat and one stat only to determine whether the Commodores cover this game or not, turnovers will be the key. Averaging 12.0 turnovers per game isn't bad, but if the Longhorns are forcing many more than that, the SEC squad is going to be in a lot of trouble, especially here in Austin.
HOW THE TEXAS LONGHORNS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It sure would've helped out the Horns if Cameron Ridley was in the lineup for this game, but alas, Prince Ibeh and Connor Lammert are going to have to nail down this frontcourt together by themselves. They'll likely combine for over 20 points and 15 boards in a game like this, but they have to make sure they don't get into any foul trouble whatsoever. Jones, in particular, has a history of drawing a ton of fouls from opposing big men with his aggression towards the basket when he gets the ball in his hands, and that could be a big problem for UT's bigs.
Again, turnovers are the key here. Texas turned the ball over a total of just 13 times in wins over West Virginia and Iowa State. However, if you go back and look at the awful version of Texas, the one which lost to TCU and Texas Tech, you'll see a team which averages over 14 turnovers per NCAAB game in defeat.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
There's just something about this Texas team that we don't like this year. Shaka Smart's patented HAVOC defense just hasn't really come to life yet, and we don't see it happening in a game like this either. Instead, we think we're going to see a sloppy set of Longhorns, especially if they start to feel the pressure of getting bulled around in the painted area by Vandy's bigs.
The Commodores are going to be road underdogs for sure in this game, but we see a lot of value here. The Big XII might be the superior conference, but this is the one marquee matchup in the SEC/Big XII Challenge where we see a team from the SEC being able to go on the road and pull out a win.
Vanderbilt 72, Texas 66
Access live betting lines from your mobile device or tablet at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here, so start betting with BookMaker today! The Vanderbilt Commodores and Texas Longhorns will square off Saturday, January 30, 2016, at 12:00 p.m. ET at the Frank Erwin Special Events Center. The matchup will be televised live on ESPN2.
