Many tournament prognosticators considered Oregon State a bubble team. But the Beavers ended their 26-year NCAA Tournament drought and cruised in as a seventh-seed in the West. They open with a VCU squad that is making its sixth straight NCAA Tournament appearance.
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VCU Rams -4
Oregon State Beavers +4
Over/Under: 141
HOW THE VCU RAMS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Rams didn’t miss a beat despite the departure of former head coach Shaka Smart to Texas, earning a share of the Atlantic 10 title and then making it to their fourth consecutive conference tournament title game.
Expectations were lowered when the program-changing coach took his “Havoc” style with him to the Lone Star state. But VCU still creates havoc as the Rams love to speed up the pace and force turnovers. They rank sixth in the nation in steals and hold opponents to just 66.7 points.
Four starters return from a squad that fell 75-72 in overtime to Ohio State in the first round of last year’s Tournament, including senior guard Melvin Johnson, who leads the team in scoring and has made 104 three-pointers. That experience can’t be overlooked against an Oregon State team that relies on several underclassmen.
VCU also catches a break with Oregon State forward Tres Tinkle likely out with a foot injury he sustained in practice. That takes 13.4 points and 5.4 boards per game off the floor and seriously hampers the Beavers’ depth.
HOW THE OREGON STATE BEAVERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Beavers are back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the original Gary Payton was suiting up for them. It’s been 26 years and The Glove’s son, Gary Payton II, is now the team’s best player and a huge reason why Oregon State is dancing for the first time in his lifetime.
Payton II tops the squad in almost every statistical category and has been spectacular at times. He leads the Beavers in scoring, rebounding, assists, steals, and SportsCenter appearances for his highlight-reel dunks.
But it’s Oregon State’s 1-3-1 zone defense that has helped key the team’s turnaround. Behind Payton, the two-time Pac-12 defensive player of the year, the Beavers force an average of 13.5 turnovers per game and hold opponents to just 32.9 percent from three-point range.
The likely absence of Tres Tinkle is a huge blow to Oregon State’s chances. However, his father, head coach Wayne Tinkle, has done a tremendous job since taking over the downtrodden program and will find a way for his club to overcome that.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
These teams could very easily have their seedings switched and nobody would know any different. The Rams, as the 10th seed, are favored by 4-points and Oregon State got a fortunate draw, at least according to some.
VCU has a nice lineup to attack Oregon State’s pressure. The three-guard lineup of Johnson, Korey Billbury and JeQuan Lewis is active and pesky. Big man Mo Allie-Cox is tough inside and he loves to draw in defenses and kick to his guards, who can all knock down threes.
Payton II won’t get rattled, so VCU’s pressure defense likely won’t be as effective as it normally is. The absence of Tres Tinkle hurts Oregon State, though, and the Beavers simply don’t have the depth that VCU has, with 10 players getting at least 11 minutes of play per basketball game.
VCU 75, Oregon State 70
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