America East might have the most fair way of determining its conference champion. Its tournament is spread out over a full week, and the better team gets to host the game. It's also an opportunity to see a home team storm the court after a victory to ensure a trip to the NCAA Tournament. That's what the fans of the Stony Brook Seawolves will be hoping to see on Saturday morning when they take on the Vermont Catamounts for a spot in the dance.
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HOW THE VERMONT CATAMOUNTS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Vermont is hot right now with seven wins in a row, including a 14-point victory here at Island Federal Credit Union Arena to wrap up the regular season. Most of the games have been blowouts, and in fact, a 63-56 win over New Hampshire in the America East semis was the closest game of the bunch.
The Catamounts are one of the faster paced teams in an otherwise generally pretty slow conference in terms of pace of play, and they're going to have to force the tempo again in this one.
What Vermont does well though, is manage to create good possessions even with all of its speed. This is the only team in America East to rank in the Top 25 in both shooting percentage and three-point shooting percentage.
The Catamounts are going to try to knock off the Seawolves by taking advantage of their depth. They don't have an alpha scorer who can take over a game, but they do have four men averaging at least 11 points per game and four more averaging at least five points per game, and any of the seven could have a 20-point effort if the Stony Brook 'D' isn't careful.
HOW THE STONY BROOK SEAWOLVES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Seawolves won't have the look of an intimidating team, as they don't have a man on their roster bigger than 6-foot-8. However, they're the best rebounding team in the conference and have a Top 20 rebounding margin in the nation at +11.6 boards per game. Not only is this the best team in America East on the offensive boards, but Stony Brook also holds its opposition to the fewest offensive rebounds in the conference as well.
Both Jameel Warney and Carson Puriefoy had double-doubles in the semifinals against Hartford on Monday night. The Seawolves are +32 on the glass in this tournament to date, and they've got 18 more offensive rebounds than they conceded.
However, the loss to Vermont was a rare dud for the Seawolves. They were outdone 35-30 on the boards, and both teams had eight offensive rebounds. You hate to say that a game like this is going to come down to the glass, but if the Seawolves aren't at least +5 or so on the boards, we can't see them covering this game.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
This tournament is quite interesting in that neither club here in the final has even covered a spread yet since postseason play started. That said, neither has really been tested either, proof of just how dominant both of these teams have been.
Stony Brook though, is still the better of these two teams. We really think the last game of the regular season was a mere bump in the road, and there won't be a repeat performance with so much on the line on Saturday.
Warney was good in that contest with 13 points and eight boards, but we think he's going to have even more opportunities in the paint on Saturday. He'll be the difference-maker in the America East Final.
Stony Brook 73, Vermont 68
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BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The game between the Vermont Catamounts and the Stony Brook Seawolves will start at 11:00 a.m. ET on Saturday, March 12, 2016 at Island Federal Credit Union Arena. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN2.
