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Heading into Saturday, there was a legitimate chance that all four No. 1 seeds would end up in the Final Four. Instead, it was the No. 2s who spoiled all of the fun in the South and West Regions. The Villanova Wildcats have been the consummate team throughout this tournament, and they'll need everything they've got to beat the best one-man band in the land at the moment, Buddy Hield and the Oklahoma Sooners.
NCAA Tournament Odds
Villanova Wildcats -2.5
Oklahoma Sooners +2.5
Over/Under 147
HOW THEY GOT HERE
Villanova was quietly the No. 2 team in the nation in terms of points per possession, and live bettors are learning that in this tourney. The Wildcats have easily led the tournament in points per possession en route to wins over UNC-Asheville, Iowa, Miami and Kansas, and seemingly each win is getting more and more impressive.
Bettors have been waiting for the Wildcats to choke as they seem to do every March, but they made it through the first two weekends unscathed and with a 4-0 ATS record to show for it as well.
Oklahoma didn't have a great first weekend of the dance for bettors, as it never really looked the part to cover against either Cal State Bakersfield or VCU. However, last weekend, the victories were emphatic against both Texas A&M and Oregon. In both cases, the Sooners raced out to huge first half leads. Sure, they let their foes back in it just a bit in both games, and that had to burn live bettors who were confident they'd hold onto the leads, but the victories were never in any doubt.
KEY MATCHUP
Buddy Hield. Ryan Arcidiacono. This is the stuff that Final Fours are made out of and is why this tournament is great.
You're not going to see alarming stats out of Arcidiacono like you will out of Hield, but there's no doubt that the senior is the heart and soul of this team on both sides of the court.
Live bettors are going to have to watch this battle closely, especially when Hield doesn't have the ball in his hands on offense. Arcidiacono has done a fantastic job sticking right with his man throughout this tournament both on and off the ball, and this will be the toughest matchup Hield has had to face.
Keep in mind that Hield has hardly sat this entire tournament, and he has a pair of games with at least 36 points scored. If he does that again in this one, we just don't see Villanova having a chance. Live bettors know that Hield has the ability to go on a run all by himself, something that we've seen time and time again for the Sooners. It'll happen at least once in this game for sure, but it's how the Wildcats respond that will determine the flow of live betting.
KEY STATS & TRENDS
These two teams did play against each other in December, a game which was really never all that close. The Sooners were actually five-point underdogs in that one in Honolulu, but the result was never in doubt. They started off with a 15-3 lead and never really looked back from there. The Wildcats never led in the game, and they were seemingly always on the wrong side of the live betting numbers. Oklahoma triumphed 78-55.
Total bettors will have a tough time in this one. The Sooners have played 12 of their last 14 under the number. Villanova has put 10 of its last 13 over the total.
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