The brutal ACC schedule can take its toll on any team, and right now that team is the Virginia Cavaliers. Coming off a loss to Duke, its second straight and fourth in the past six games, the Cavs have the unenviable task of beating the North Carolina Tar Heels to put an end to their current slide. Making the chore more difficult is the fact that the Tar Heels haven’t lost in the Dean Dome this season and are nearly unbeatable on their home floor.
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Into late January the Cavs were cruising. They just knocked off Notre Dame to improve to 16-3 overall and 6-2 in the ACC and had a matchup with then top-ranked Villanova next on the docket. It was a game there for the taking and the Cavs let it slip away, losing 61-59 on the road. That started a slide where UVA has lost four of six and is 3-3 ATS in that span. It’s been a struggle for the Cavs lately on the road, as well. UVA has lost three straight and is just 4-3 SU and ATS on the road in ACC play.
There is no need to be concerned about the Tar Heels. After losing by eight at Duke last week, UNC was unstoppable on Wednesday night and hammered rival NC State 97-73, easily covering the 11-point spread. After splitting their contests on Tobacco Road, the Tar Heels return to the friendly confines of the Dean Dome where they are 13-0 SU and 8-4 ATS this season. Their two most recent home games were much closer than expected and UNC failed to cover both times, but escaped with wins over Pitt and Notre Dame by a combined nine points.
Injury Report
Just when the Tar Heels get Theo Pinson back from injury, they’ll likely be without Kenny Williams for the rest of the season after he sustained a knee injury in practice this week. Williams doesn’t supply a lot of offense, he averages just 6.2 points per game, and that can be made up. But the Heels will suffer on the other end of the floor without their top defender. Guarding the three has been an issue all season for UNC, and without Williams it could be worse.
And the versatile guard took on many roles for Roy Williams. He supplied 24 minutes per game and was in the starting lineup when Pinson was hurt. He’s also been the first off the bench in games he didn’t start and his absence will be felt. Luke Maye and Nate Britt could see more run time, but their numbers aren’t nearly as good and the defense is questionable.
Key Stat
Virginia’s success is predicated on its defense. When the Cavs don’t perform in that area, more times than not they’re going to lose. The Cavs lead the country in scoring defense, allowing just 55.5 points per game, but surrendered 65 in a loss to Duke on Wednesday, when the Blue Devils went off for 44 second half points. And the final 20 minutes have been particularly troublesome for the Cavs lately.
In their last four losses, UVA has allowed its opponent to shoot 50 percent or better from the field after intermission while surrendering and average of nearly 42 points per game. It’s a drastic difference from the first half of those same four games where the Cavs have allowed just 88 points total for an average of 22.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
The Cavaliers can play defense and they better do it for a full 40 minutes or longer on Saturday. UVA lacks an inside threat and that’s not good against UNC, which boasts one of the best front courts in the ACC with Kennedy Meeks, Justin Jackson and Isaiah Hicks. The Cavs have to win the backcourt battle and that won’t be easy either.
If the Cavs can slow the game down and prevent UNC from going on sustained runs, their chances of getting a victory increase. The D needs to be dominant and it has been for UVA for good stretches this season. But the Tar Heels have several weapons and have been able to penetrate the stingy defense in the past with four of the last five games playing above the closing total. The Tar Heels just don’t lose at the Dean Dome and the Cavs are a fragile group right now with their strength not being good enough.
College Basketball Odds: North Carolina 75, Virginia 68
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