Duke beat a ranked opponent for the first time this season with Monday’s defeat of No. 13 Louisville. The Blue Devils go for two straight and a victory over No. 7 Virginia will have them back in their rightful place among the top 25.
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HOW THE VIRGINIA CAVALIERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Virginia is back to winning because, as guard Anthony Gill said, they are playing “Virginia Basketball.” And that brand of ball under coach Tony Bennett starts with defense. In the last four games, No. 13 Louisville, Boston College, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech all have scored 50 or fewer points, and the double-digit victories over Louisville and Pitt came on the road.
The damage goes further beyond that. The Cavs extended their winning streak to seven straight with Tuesday’s win over rival VT and a third straight ACC regular season title is well within reach. Nobody is asking what’s wrong with Virginia any longer.
Duke lacks a true point guard and the Cavaliers will attack defensively with relentless pressure. Virginia will force Matt Jones and Derryck Thornton to take care of the ball and make wise decisions. The Cavs will count on that not happening.
During the streak, Malcolm Brogdon has lived up to his reputation as the Cavs’ most dangerous offensive player. He’s averaged 21.7 points and shot 58.3 percent from the field, 55.2 percent from three-point range and 96.8 percent on free throw attempts. Gill and London Perrantes have also been on fire during the run. But for UVA, the success begins with defense.
HOW THE DUKE BLUE DEVILS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
All those losses lost month might have taught Duke something important: How to win. The Blue Devils beat No. 13 Louisville on Monday and did it with toughness, something that was lacking during a stretch where they lost four of five games and dropped from the national rankings for the first time in a decade.
Despite their ups and downs this season – including that three-game losing streak with two losses inside Cameron Indoor, Coach K’s temporary leave of absence, the injury to Amile Jefferson and questions at point guard – Duke isn’t as bad as people think.
The young group has grown as the season progressed. Monday’s win was a sign of the team’s maturation process. “We’re growing at a really fast pace,” Grayson Allen said after the victory over Louisville.
Once again the Blue Devils will be tested on their home floor by a team that likes to play havoc. Duke handled Louisville’s pressure well by limiting turnovers, shooting the ball and getting to the foul line. The thin rotation showed no signs of fatigue down the stretch and Duke was able to pull out the win. They’ll need to perform in a similar fashion to upend the Cavaliers.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Duke can score the basketball, there’s no denying that. They do have problems defending, however. But facing a Virginia squad that hasn’t allowed any of its last four opponents to break the half-century mark will be a big test. The Blue Devils do a nice job of getting to the foul line to help their point total and if they can get to the stripe the game will start to go the way Coach K wants it to. Just like against Louisville, the higher the score the better chance Duke has of winning. Virginia has the horses to continually apply pressure. The Cavs will work on Duke’s lack of a point guard, try to force turnovers and use a deep bench to wear the Blue Devils down. If successful, Virginia can escape Cameron Indoor with a win. Easier said than done, but the Cavs are performing at a high level.
Virginia 67, Duke 63
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