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Louisville’s No. 16 ranking will be tested over the course of three days with matchups against some of the ACC’s best. The grueling stretch begins Saturday against No. 11 Virginia and concludes Monday with No. 2 North Carolina. The Cardinals have the benefit of playing the games at home where they are 13-0 this season.
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HOW THE VIRGINIA CAVALIERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Louisville will bring relentless pressure on the defensive end forcing Virginia’s backcourt duo of Malcolm Brogdon and London Perrantes to take care of the basketball and make smart decisions. The two continue to flourish and, along with forward Anthony Gill, are the main offensive contributors for the Cavaliers. Brogdon leads the team averaging better than 17 points per game and dropped 28 on Wake Forest Tuesday in a dramatic comeback win.
The Cavaliers are the ACC’s top three-point shooting team and are never out of a game because of it. They overcame a miserable night on the perimeter Tuesday, hitting four threes in the final minute to erase a 10-point deficit with 90 seconds left. Perrantes is the sharp-shooting ace, averaging 11.7 points and shooting an insane 55.6 percent from three-point range. His near limitless range could give Louisville’s zone fits it they can’t contain him.
With their win at Wake Forest on Tuesday, the Cavaliers broke the seal on their road woes, getting their first league victory away from home in four tries. It took a buzzer-beating three-pointer from Darius Thompson, but a win’s a win. Now they know they can win on the road and though the competition will be stiffer, getting that first one out of the way is huge.
HOW THE LOUISVILLE CARDINALS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Louisville hasn’t been overly impressive on the offensive end in conference play, but it’s made that passable by experiencing little dropoff defensively between its nonconference results and its ACC opponents. The Cardinals rank 10th in league play with 70.3 points per game on 44 percent shooting. That’s down from 85.1 on 51.2 percent over an 11-2 nonconference span – a reasonable dip considering the level of competition.
But the Cardinals have continued to excel defensively, allowing 62 points on 37.3 percent in the league after being at 57.4 and 36.0 outside of it. The defense has been good enough to make Louisville one of two teams without two losses in ACC play, despite the continued distraction of an NCAA investigation that has appeared to make them s stronger group.
Chinanu Onuaku has been a big part of that group with six straight double-doubles, and it appears the mini-slumps are over for Damion Lee and Trey Lewis, which will be important against Virginia’s defensive pressure. The Cardinals’ poor free throw shooting – they shoot 68.1 percent as a team – has yet to hurt them. Against an aggressive defense, trips to the line could be plentiful and makes could be the difference.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Two teams that pride themselves on playing defense could bring this game to a standstill and bring us a result similar to last NCAAB season’s contest, a 59-57 Louisville victory. Virginia has struggled on the road in conference play, losing their first three away from home to Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Florida State, three mediocre teams. They avoided a fourth straight road loss with a dramatic last-second three-pointer for a 72-71 win at 1-7 Wake Forest on Tuesday. For whatever reason, the Cavs just stumble on the road. And that won’t fly against the Cardinals, who are undefeated at the KFC Yum! Center.
Louisville must keep an eye on Gill, who is a monster around the basket for Virginia. He isn’t the biggest player on the court, but he has a knack for getting good shots at the hoop and knocks down over 60 percent of his attempts. The Cardinals have a few more scoring options and that, along with playing at home, will be difference in what should be a defensive struggle.
Louisville 62, Virginia 57
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