Two mid-majors that are no strangers to the NCAA Tournament will meet in the 7-10 matchup in Salt Lake City on Thursday. The St. Mary’s Gaels haven’t been to the Big Dance since 2013 after getting snubbed despite a 29-6 record last season and are ready to show the world what they are capable of. Their opponent will be the Virginia Commonwealth Rams, who have been in this situation often in recent years. VCU has now made it to March Madness for seven straight seasons and.
This war on the floor will go down Thursday, March 16, 2017 at 7:20 p.m. ET at Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City. The game will be televised live on TBS. We will have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every other NCAA Tournament matchup.
College Basketball Odds at BookMaker.eu
St. Mary’s -4.5 vs. Virginia Commonwealth
St. Mary’s was a solid team against the number any time it didn’t face Gonzaga. The Gaels lost by double digits and couldn’t cover the number any time they played the Bulldogs, but made everyone else pay. This team went 16-8-1 ATS and 28-1 SU against teams not named Gonzaga, with the lone loss coming at the hands of UT-Arlington. St. Mary’s played a lot of under games this season and the under had an 11-4 record in non-home games.
VCU’s hopes were in a bit of jeopardy heading into the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament after back-to-back road losses to Rhode Island and Dayton at the tail end of the regular season. However, the Rams survived against Richmond and defeated George Mason to get an at-large bid even though they fell in the A-10 Title Game. They were 12-17-1 ATS on the season and miracle wins against George Washington and St. Bonaventure were needed to keep this team’s chances alive.
Key Stat
St. Mary’s has the second-best defense in the country in terms of points allowed per game, but there are some questions about how good this unit really is. Although the Gaels were great at shutting down most weak WCC foes and non-conference opponents, this team only played two teams that ended up making the NCAA Tournament and whether the numbers are legitimate or not is open to debate.
Ken Pomeroy has the Gaels as the 26th best defense in the country and that seems more accurate. St. Mary’s also benefits from playing at an excruciating slow pace that only Virginia fans could appreciate. The Gaels and the Cavaliers are the only two schools that average less than 60 possessions a game when adjusted for opponent according to Pomeroy.
Coaching Angle
This is Will Wade’s second season at VCU and although the team isn’t as well-known as it was under Shaka Smart, the program has remained steady under Wade. The Rams are still pressing and harassing opponents on the defensive end, forcing an average of 15 turnovers a night, but they have responded on the offensive end as well averaging 46.1 percent from the floor.
Unlike St. Mary’s, VCU beefed up its non-conference schedule despite playing in a pretty good conference. The Rams may have lost to Baylor, Illinois, and Georgia Tech, but knocked off LSU, Princeton, and Middle Tennessee State to boost their resume. Getting exposed to quality teams will no doubt help the Rams.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
It’s not hard to make an argument against St. Mary’s. The Gaels feasted on weak opposition all season long and any time they were on television, they were losing to Gonzaga.
This is a great opportunity to grab the points and go with the upset. These Rams players are seasoned and have been in this situation before, while it’s a new experience for the Gaels’ roster. VCU pulled off the upset as a 10-seed against Oregon State last year and will repeat the feat.
College Basketball Odds: Virginia Commonwealth 67, St. Mary’s 64
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