Both head south for the action, the No. 5 seed Virginia Cavaliers and No. 12 seeded UNC-Wilmington Seahawks will meet up on the first day of the Round-of-64 action. Virginia will try and advance further than they did a year ago, making it all the way to the Elite Eight, but the Seahawks are no slouches. This team thrives on forcing turnovers and could be pesky matchup and we all know to be weary of the 5-12 matchups.
This war on the floor will go down Thursday, March 16, 2017, at 12:40 p.m. ET at the Amway Center in Orlando, FL. The game will be televised live on TruTV.
We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball Thursday schedule.
Odds at BookMaker.eu
BookMaker just released their spread for this game, set at -9 which is appropriate given how good Virginia is and the lopsided 5-12 matchup.
In their last game, the Cavs lost to the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame, 71-58, despite entering play favored by 3.5-points. The loss snapped a four game winning streak both SU and ATS. Going back a bit further, however, Virginia is just 4-5 SU and ATS showing at least some level of inconsistency that may come into play on Thursday.
UNC-Wilmington, on the other hand, has won seven straight games after taking the Colonial Athletic Association title. The Seahawks are 4-0-1 ATS in their five Round of 64 matchups historically, including covering 10-point spread against Duke last year.
Key Stats
A bit surprising given the team’s defensive reputation, but Virginia is ranked amongst the worst teams in college basketball in total rebounds per game at just 32.9. For the Cavaliers, most of that is coming from failure to rebound on offense and Virginia has been plagued by that throughout the season, particularly when their initial shots aren’t sinking.
The Cavs are the top ranked defense in the sport according to PPG, giving up just 55.6, but their offense is amongst the worse, too, as they thrive on a very deliberate pace of play and a high defensive efficiency rating.
On offense, this team is more efficient than their 66.6 PPG would suggest, but that’s only if the shots are sinking. Fortunately for Virginia, UNC-Wilmington doesn’t defend the opposition’s shots too well, instead focusing their defensive efforts at forcing the turnovers going up the court. With opponents shooting 47.7-percent from the floor against the Seahawks, the Cavs should be able to sink enough of their initial shots to negate a potential negative rebounding margin.
Player to Watch
Keep an eye on Virginia’s Kyle Guy in this one. Guy was a key player in getting Virginia out of its offensive doldrums in mid-to-late February that led to a series of four straight losses and back-to-back games scoring fewer than 50 points.
The freshman guard was used sparingly early on, but has seen a big uptick in his time on the court and, with that, the Cavs have seen a distinct improvement in their offensive output. He’s seen at least 32 minutes in three of the team’s last five games and has scored at least 17 points in each of those three games. Interestingly, though, he played 25 minutes in the Notre Dame loss and failed to score once, further highlighting his importance to the offense as the team scored just 58.
Guy adds that extra dimension to the Virginia offense alongside London Perrantes and Ty Jerome. That extra threat could leave the UNC-Wilmington defense a bit exposed as they can get spread, leading to their less-than-stellar scoring defense.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
Look for the Seahawks to give Virginia a bit of a scare in the first half with a few big turnovers and potentially even carrying the lead into the half.
Count on the Cavaliers regrouping and coming back for the win SU, but look for the Seahawks to keep the game close, though ultimately failing to secure their first NCAA Tournament win since 2002.
Virginia is a defensive minded team and one that, while not prolific scorers, does a good job of playing solid, fundamentally strong basketball. For UNC-Wilmington to win, they will need to get into Virginia’s heads with a couple early turnovers and force a faster pace of play, but unfortunately for the Seahawks, the Cavaliers aren’t prone to too many turnovers or getting rattled too easily. They’ll keep the pace slowed which isn’t conducing to UNC-Wilmington’s style.
When it’s all said and down, look for a close, low-scoring affair with the Cavaliers dreams of redemption after their Elite Eight exit a seasons ago still alive and well. Meanwhile, the Seahawks undefeated streak ATS in the Round of 64 should still be alive and well, too.
College Basketball Odds: Virginia 62, UNC-Wilmington 56
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