A Big 12 battle in Waco, TX highlights the final Saturday of the regular season when Baylor hosts West Virginia. The Bears play with 80-69 redemption for a February 6 loss in Morgantown.
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HOW THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
The Mountaineers are physical in the block and as usual a top rebounding team under top bench boss Bob Huggins. This is not a good 3-point shooting team, but Baylor’s perimeter defense is dreadful allowing a league-worst 40 percent from the arc. But West Virginia will press and create turnovers, and when they miss, it’s put back time with their strength on the boards led by two of the league’s top-3 rebounders in Devin Williams and Jonathan Holton.
That has helped the Mountaineers get to the free throw line where they have taken a league-high 468 shots from the charity stripe while only hitting 66 percent from the line.
The physical play in the block should result in more fouls and points for both teams. Senior Jaysean Paige has made much improvement coming off the bench this season while leading the team in scoring at 16 points per game in Big 12 play.
The Mountaineers will have to play better on the road to get this win, and coach Huggins noted recently, "We've gotta be more consistent," Huggins said. "Our execution still at times is not good and we've definitely got to do a better job in transition."
HOW THE BAYLOR BEARS WILL COVER THE SPREAD
Baylor is one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the country thanks to senior Rico Gathers, a double-double behemoth in the block. Along with Jonathan Motley, the league’s top shooter at 62 percent and senior Taurean Prince, the Bears lead the Big 12 in rebounding margin at over plus-6 per game, but are barely ahead of these Mountaineers.
Senior guards Prince and point guard Lester Medford give the Bears solid experienced play on the perimeter and Baylor is No. 2 in the league in steals and assist-to-turnover ratio.
The Bears have solid depth as their reserves lead the league in shooting. Baylor shoots 47 percent FG and is No. 8 in the country in adjusted efficiency and No. 3 in offensive rebounding percentage. This match-up will feature two of the top offensive rebounding teams in the country as West Virginia is No. 1 and Baylor will need to protect the basketball with the Mountaineers No. 2 in the country in forcing turnovers.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
This line will be near pick ‘em and a higher-scoring rematch could play out with both teams averaging 75 points per game and creating turnovers and transition baskets. However, the Bears have been slowed by the league’s stronger defensive teams Kansas and Texas on this court and now face another one with West Virginia’s No. 2 FG percentage defense.
Check West Virginia’s result against Texas Tech Wednesday before pulling the trigger.
The Bears had won 14-staight home games at the Ferrell Center until losing to Oklahoma and then Texas and Kansas in the past five weeks. The Mountaineers went on the road to score 78 at Texas and 65 at Kansas in defeats, and should score near 75 in this contest with the Bears bringing their best in redemption and last home game.
Baylor 77, West Virginia 75
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BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The matchup between the West Virginia Mountaineers and Baylor Bears will go down Saturday, March 5, 2016, at 2:00 p.m. ET at the Ferrell Center. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.
