Having not faced each other since 2003, the Mountaineers and Gators take a break from conference play to square off in a Saturday showdown in Florida. The Gators will look to rebound after a narrow loss incurred on the road against Vanderbilt.
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HOW THE WEST VIRGNIA MOUNTAINEERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Florida is known for its defense, but the Mountaineers have a strong defensive and rebounding unit that can keep up with the Gators.
Over West Virginia’s last seven games, it’s kept the opposition below 64-points five times, covering the spread in six of those games.
In general, the Mountaineers are limiting the opposition to 63.6 PPG and are exceptionally adept at shutting down the opponents outside game with a meager 26.8 percent shooting mark from three-point range.
Offense is where the Mountaineers differentiate themselves from the Gators in averaging 81.6 PPG. West Virginia also has a bit more depth at the top than Florida with five different players averaging at least 9.6 PPG.
In the backcourt, Jaysean Paige, Jevon Carter and Dexter Miles Jr. are a strong trio. Paige, in particular, will be a difficult player for the Gators to handle with 13.6 PPG and 31 steals.
Meanwhile, up front, Devin Williams is key. He’s shooting over 50 percent from the floor and boasts a team high 8.2 RPG. The ability to win the rebounding battle can go a long ways in helping the Mountaineers position themselves to cover the spread and take the game outright regardless of being on the road.
HOW THE FLORIDA GATORS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Florida needs to push the Mountaineers to the outside as much as possible. West Virginia is a strong shooting team from the floor, but are shooting just 30.7 percent behind the arc. Defense is the name of the game for Florida with it holding all opposition to 38.6 percent field goal shooting.
While the defense is a given for the Gators, the offense hasn’t been nearly as strong. Still, before the loss to Vanderbilt, Florida had logged three straight games of at least 80-points including a 95-point explosion against Auburn.
On the season, the Gators are outscoring their opposition by 9.1 PPG and while their shooting percentage numbers are low, they are excellent rebounders, giving themselves ample opportunities. The team is ranked No. 8 in rebounds with 42.3 per game.
Florida has three players with at least 10.6 PPG and they cover the court well with forward Dorian Finney-Smith and center John Egbunu averaging 14.4 and 10.6 respectively while guard KeVaughn Allen represents the backcourt with 11.6 PPG.
Egbunu is shooting 56.8 percent from the floor giving the Gators at least one accurate shooter and Justin Leon, although only getting 12:22 minutes of playing time per game, is shooting 56.1 percent from the floor and 45.5 percent behind the arc as a depth play off the bench.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Mountaineers possess far better offensive numbers than the hosts this NCAAB season.
Still, the Gators will provide a stiff challenge for West Virginia; while averaging north of 80 PPG have scored 80 just once in their last six games - the same number of times they were held under 50.
With Texas able to limit West Virginia’s scoring a couple weeks ago, I am confident a superior Florida defense can take care of business as well.
Bank on the Gators doing just that at home where they’re 5-2-1 ATS and where they’re offense has delivered over the last month.
Florida 73, West Virginia 66
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